KBNA / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 10 · 01:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 5.8¢Risks 1.46u

WN2NO 94.2¢Risks 23.54u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.54u · WN2 −23.54u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	23.1%	—	—	22.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	1.7%	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	18.4%	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.1%	25.7%	0.5%	—	7.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	4.6%	23.7%	4.4%	—	5.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	20.0%	9.3%	—	3.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	16.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.2%	12.7%	11.1%	—	4.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.0%	13.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	6.1%	17.8%	6.6%	—	2.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	2.1%	17.3%	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.1%	6.5%	1.6%	—	1.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.8%	14.0%	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.5%	18.4%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.9%	23.8%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.0%	40.4%	1.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.0%	4.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.9%	23.5%	0.5%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	24.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	25.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	17.5%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	22.4%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	21.6%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	6.7%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	10.3%	0.6%	—	0.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	12.0%	0.3%	3.7%	0.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	5.4%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.4%	2.7%	0.2%	1.1%	0.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.4%	5.6%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.4%	7.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.4%	7.3%	0.1%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	11%	93.6°F	4.8°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	93.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-09 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	91.9°F	5.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	91.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
ICON	2%	89.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	90.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260913-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗