KBNA / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Sep 13 · 07:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

66%

63%

58%

55%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 71.0¢Risks 71.00u

HRESNO 29.0¢Risks 29.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.00u · HRES −29.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	76.9%	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	27.2%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	—	—	—	71.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	78.7%	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	8.5%	86.7%	21.4%	—	63.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	55.8%	86.9%	55.1%	—	58.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	85.8%	72.4%	—	52.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	83.6%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	20.1%	80.5%	78.2%	—	61.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	9.9%	82.1%	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	70.7%	88.0%	72.1%	—	53.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	54.3%	88.5%	—	—	47.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	16.1%	75.2%	51.7%	—	51.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	43.7%	87.9%	—	—	49.1%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	40.0%	92.1%	30.6%	—	43.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	68.2%	95.2%	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	54.9%	98.6%	53.9%	—	38.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.4%	80.3%	—	—	34.4%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	59.2%	96.8%	50.0%	45.9%	25.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	50.0%	97.5%	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	39.2%	98.1%	48.9%	0.7%	41.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	48.9%	97.1%	0.1%	—	47.8%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	50.0%	98.5%	53.5%	—	50.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	44.0%	98.7%	54.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	72.4%	94.8%	63.4%	0.0%	56.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	73.1%	97.6%	77.2%	—	74.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	80.9%	98.6%	73.9%	94.3%	52.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	95.0%	97.0%	73.5%	—	48.6%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	97.3%	95.6%	77.8%	91.1%	80.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	96.6%	98.6%	68.9%	—	76.4%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	97.6%	99.4%	79.7%	91.1%	76.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	99.0%	99.7%	87.7%	—	91.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	94.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	90%	93.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	94.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	90.6°F	2.7°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	90.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	90.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	90.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260913-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗