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KBNA / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 07 · 14:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
70%
ICON
61%
HRES
49%
WN2
46%
EPS
36%
Consensus
53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u
VS
EPSNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.25u · EPS −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.7% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.7% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.7% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.7% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.7% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.4% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.4% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.4% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.4% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.4% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00IFS HRES: 49.3% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00IFS HRES: 49.3% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00IFS HRES: 49.3% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00IFS HRES: 49.3% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00IFS HRES: 49.3% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00ICON: 60.6% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:0009-07 14:0309-07 14:2709-07 14:51
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:0069.8%35.7%46.4%49.3%60.6%
2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:0069.8%35.7%46.4%49.3%60.6%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:0069.8%35.7%46.4%49.3%60.6%
2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:0069.8%35.7%46.4%49.3%60.6%
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:0069.8%35.7%46.4%49.3%60.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single70%——Not retainedPending
ICON61%——Not retainedPending
National Blend58%——Not retainedPending
IFS HRES49%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 246%——Not retainedPending
IFS Ensemble36%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260913-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 92.4°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗