KBNA / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 07 · 14:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

61%

49%

46%

36%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

EPSNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.25u · EPS −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	67.0%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	18.1%	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	58.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	67.6%	—	—	56.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	4.2%	77.6%	12.6%	—	49.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	41.3%	77.4%	40.6%	—	44.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	75.5%	58.3%	—	37.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	72.1%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	10.8%	67.7%	64.8%	—	46.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	4.5%	69.5%	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	55.0%	77.5%	56.6%	—	36.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	37.4%	78.0%	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	7.7%	59.6%	34.6%	—	34.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	27.1%	76.5%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	23.7%	82.8%	16.6%	—	26.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	50.0%	88.2%	—	—	20.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	35.7%	95.6%	34.8%	—	21.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	48.0%	63.7%	—	—	18.3%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	38.8%	91.0%	30.3%	26.8%	11.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.5%	29.8%	92.4%	—	—	10.1%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	20.6%	93.8%	28.2%	0.1%	22.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	27.6%	90.8%	0.0%	—	26.7%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	28.0%	94.3%	31.0%	—	28.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	22.5%	94.8%	31.4%	—	27.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	48.8%	84.1%	38.9%	0.0%	32.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	48.7%	90.8%	53.9%	—	50.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	58.0%	93.5%	48.7%	81.8%	27.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	82.7%	88.2%	47.2%	—	23.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	88.5%	83.7%	51.4%	73.2%	55.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.1%	85.6%	92.5%	39.5%	—	48.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	88.3%	95.6%	51.6%	71.0%	46.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	93.2%	96.9%	63.0%	—	70.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	61%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	58%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260913-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 92.4°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗