KBNA / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Sep 14 · 07:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

89%

83%

71%

66%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.2¢Risks 78.20u

HRESNO 21.8¢Risks 21.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.80u · HRES −21.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	85.7%	—	—	59.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	87.4%	38.2%	—	57.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	93.1%	60.8%	—	58.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	80.0%	96.5%	63.5%	—	65.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	67.7%	90.3%	36.7%	—	66.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	23.1%	88.2%	—	—	53.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	71.4%	93.9%	63.9%	—	59.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	73.3%	95.1%	—	—	52.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	72.4%	99.6%	57.0%	—	44.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	90.0%	96.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	79.1%	98.5%	63.6%	50.0%	44.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	81.0%	96.4%	—	—	35.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	68.7%	98.1%	76.0%	—	48.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	60.9%	94.8%	—	—	56.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	56.1%	98.2%	63.1%	—	60.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	72.1%	95.3%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	79.4%	82.4%	57.6%	—	52.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	60.0%	76.0%	7.1%	—	68.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	79.3%	84.0%	31.0%	43.0%	58.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	79.2%	66.4%	47.6%	—	60.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	85.6%	58.7%	53.7%	40.1%	79.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	84.2%	69.8%	36.1%	—	63.9%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	85.9%	74.9%	34.3%	66.9%	51.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	78.9%	71.2%	27.6%	—	50.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	80.9%	72.0%	38.6%	79.8%	70.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	90.1%	75.2%	38.1%	—	71.5%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	83.9%	81.9%	42.1%	87.5%	72.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	93.2%	88.5%	48.4%	—	80.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	94%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	94.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	90%	93.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	92.9°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	92.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	91.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	91.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260914-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 90.3°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗