KBNA / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Sep 09 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

84%

74%

67%

54%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

EPSNO 27.7¢Risks 27.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +27.70u · EPS −27.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00	74.9%	61.7%	43.3%	59.6%	78.7%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	74.9%	61.7%	43.3%	59.6%	78.7%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00	74.9%	61.7%	54.2%	59.6%	78.7%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00	74.9%	61.7%	54.2%	59.6%	78.7%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	74.9%	61.7%	54.2%	59.6%	78.7%
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00	32.8%	61.7%	54.2%	84.3%	86.9%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00	32.8%	61.7%	54.2%	84.3%	86.9%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00	32.8%	61.7%	54.2%	84.3%	86.9%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	32.8%	61.7%	54.2%	84.3%	86.9%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00	32.8%	53.6%	54.2%	84.3%	86.9%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	32.8%	53.6%	28.0%	84.3%	86.9%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	32.8%	53.6%	28.0%	84.3%	86.9%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	32.8%	53.6%	28.0%	84.3%	86.9%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	81.8%	53.6%	28.0%	84.3%	86.9%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	81.9%	53.6%	28.0%	84.3%	86.8%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	81.9%	53.6%	28.0%	84.3%	86.8%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	81.9%	53.6%	28.0%	84.3%	86.8%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	81.9%	53.6%	28.0%	84.3%	86.8%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	81.9%	53.6%	28.0%	84.3%	86.8%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	81.9%	53.6%	28.0%	84.3%	86.8%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	81.9%	53.6%	40.2%	84.3%	86.8%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	81.9%	53.6%	40.2%	84.3%	86.8%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	81.9%	53.6%	40.2%	84.3%	86.8%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	81.9%	53.6%	40.2%	84.3%	86.8%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	84.2%	53.6%	40.2%	73.6%	91.0%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	84.2%	53.6%	40.2%	73.6%	91.0%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	84.2%	53.6%	40.2%	73.6%	91.0%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	84.2%	53.6%	40.2%	73.6%	91.0%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	84.2%	53.6%	40.2%	73.6%	91.0%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	84.2%	53.6%	67.3%	73.6%	91.0%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	84.2%	53.6%	67.3%	73.6%	91.0%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	84.2%	53.6%	67.3%	73.6%	91.0%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	84.2%	53.6%	67.3%	73.6%	91.0%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	84.2%	53.6%	67.3%	73.6%	91.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	99.5°F	6.7°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	95.9°F	5.4°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	94.7°F	6.7°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	92.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	90.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	91.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	49%	90.4°F	6.8°F	2026-09-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260914-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗