KBNA / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Sep 09 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

84%

74%

67%

54%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

EPSNO 27.7¢Risks 27.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +27.70u · EPS −27.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	70.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	52.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	—	—	—	58.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	81.5%	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	83.4%	31.7%	—	50.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	90.4%	53.6%	—	51.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	74.2%	94.8%	56.1%	—	58.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	60.3%	86.4%	29.5%	—	58.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	17.3%	83.7%	—	—	45.1%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	63.9%	91.0%	55.8%	—	50.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	65.8%	92.5%	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	64.6%	99.3%	48.2%	—	36.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	85.5%	94.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	71.8%	97.4%	54.6%	40.9%	35.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	73.9%	94.1%	—	—	26.9%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	59.6%	96.6%	67.8%	—	38.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	51.0%	91.6%	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	45.9%	96.7%	53.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	62.5%	92.0%	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	70.8%	74.5%	46.7%	—	41.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	48.9%	66.4%	4.0%	—	57.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	70.0%	75.8%	21.5%	32.0%	46.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	69.6%	54.8%	35.9%	—	48.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	77.3%	46.3%	41.3%	28.7%	69.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	75.2%	57.7%	24.8%	—	51.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	77.0%	63.2%	23.0%	54.0%	38.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	67.5%	58.3%	17.3%	—	36.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	69.5%	58.6%	25.6%	68.2%	57.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.9%	81.9%	61.9%	24.8%	—	57.5%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	72.4%	69.7%	27.6%	77.4%	57.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	85.9%	78.5%	32.4%	—	67.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	99.5°F	6.7°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	95.9°F	5.4°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	94.7°F	6.7°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	92.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	90.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	91.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	49%	90.4°F	6.8°F	2026-09-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260914-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗