KBNA / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

71%

50%

39%

35%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 53.8¢Risks 53.80u

EPSNO 46.2¢Risks 46.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.20u · EPS −46.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	62.5%	45.6%	44.2%	64.6%	68.7%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	62.5%	45.6%	44.2%	64.6%	68.7%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	62.5%	45.6%	44.2%	64.6%	65.9%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	62.5%	45.6%	41.4%	64.6%	65.9%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	62.5%	45.6%	41.4%	64.6%	65.9%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	62.5%	45.6%	41.4%	64.6%	65.9%
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	53.4%	45.6%	41.4%	50.8%	65.9%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	53.4%	45.6%	41.4%	50.8%	65.9%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	53.4%	45.6%	41.4%	50.8%	65.9%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	53.4%	45.6%	41.4%	50.8%	65.9%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	53.4%	45.6%	41.4%	50.8%	65.9%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	53.4%	39.4%	39.8%	50.8%	65.9%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	53.4%	39.4%	39.8%	50.8%	65.9%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	53.4%	39.4%	39.8%	50.8%	65.9%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	66.3%	39.4%	39.8%	50.8%	65.9%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	66.3%	39.4%	40.8%	50.8%	66.6%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	66.3%	39.4%	40.8%	50.8%	66.6%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	66.3%	39.4%	40.8%	50.8%	66.6%
2026-09-10T16:42:15+00:00	66.3%	39.4%	40.8%	50.8%	72.6%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	66.3%	39.4%	51.0%	50.8%	72.6%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	66.3%	39.4%	51.0%	50.8%	72.6%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	66.3%	39.4%	51.0%	50.8%	72.6%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	71.6%	39.4%	51.0%	39.1%	72.6%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	71.6%	39.4%	51.0%	39.1%	72.6%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	71.6%	39.4%	51.0%	39.1%	72.6%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	71.6%	39.4%	51.0%	39.1%	72.6%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	71.6%	39.4%	51.0%	39.1%	72.6%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	71.6%	39.4%	50.0%	39.1%	72.6%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	71.6%	39.4%	50.0%	39.1%	72.6%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	71.6%	40.9%	50.0%	39.1%	72.6%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	70.9%	35.0%	50.0%	39.1%	72.6%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	70.9%	35.0%	50.0%	39.1%	72.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	78%	95.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
ICON	73%	94.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	94.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	92.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	91.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	90.1°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	90.5°F	2.6°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260914-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 10 · 03:10 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗