KBNA / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

71%

50%

39%

35%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 53.8¢Risks 53.80u

EPSNO 46.2¢Risks 46.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.20u · EPS −46.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	76.7%	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	78.6%	25.7%	—	43.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	86.9%	46.4%	—	44.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	67.7%	92.4%	48.5%	—	50.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	52.4%	81.6%	23.0%	—	50.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	12.6%	78.2%	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	55.8%	87.1%	47.5%	—	42.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	57.6%	88.9%	—	—	35.8%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	56.1%	98.7%	39.6%	—	28.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	79.8%	91.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	63.6%	95.7%	45.4%	32.2%	27.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	65.7%	90.8%	—	—	19.6%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	50.0%	94.4%	58.7%	—	29.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	41.1%	87.1%	—	—	36.3%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	35.9%	94.2%	42.8%	—	39.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	52.1%	87.4%	—	—	16.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	60.8%	64.9%	36.1%	—	31.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	37.8%	55.6%	2.1%	—	46.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	59.2%	65.9%	14.0%	22.4%	35.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	58.4%	42.8%	25.3%	—	37.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	66.9%	34.2%	29.8%	19.1%	57.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	63.9%	44.9%	15.8%	—	38.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	65.7%	50.0%	14.1%	40.7%	26.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	54.2%	44.4%	9.8%	—	24.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	55.8%	44.2%	15.4%	54.3%	42.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	70.2%	47.0%	14.4%	—	42.5%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	57.9%	54.7%	16.1%	63.9%	42.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	74.6%	64.5%	19.2%	—	51.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	78%	95.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
ICON	73%	94.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	94.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	92.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	91.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	90.1°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	90.5°F	2.6°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260914-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 10 · 03:10 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗