KBNA / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

47%

22%

19%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 27.2¢Risks 27.25u

EPSNO 72.8¢Risks 72.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +72.75u · EPS −72.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	28.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	58.7%	—	—	27.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	60.4%	11.9%	—	24.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	71.5%	26.0%	—	24.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	45.4%	80.5%	27.0%	—	28.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	29.5%	61.8%	9.0%	—	28.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	3.9%	56.5%	—	—	17.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	31.5%	69.2%	24.5%	—	20.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	32.6%	71.9%	—	—	15.7%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	30.7%	94.1%	17.8%	—	10.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	56.3%	75.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	36.4%	84.5%	20.9%	12.4%	9.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	37.9%	73.2%	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	23.2%	80.3%	30.4%	—	10.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	16.4%	64.7%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	12.8%	78.8%	17.0%	—	15.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	22.8%	63.5%	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	29.2%	33.1%	11.9%	—	9.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	12.3%	24.0%	0.2%	—	17.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	26.0%	32.0%	2.5%	5.1%	10.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	24.4%	13.9%	5.8%	—	10.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	30.9%	8.9%	7.1%	3.5%	22.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	26.9%	13.5%	2.4%	—	10.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	27.3%	15.7%	1.9%	10.7%	5.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	17.3%	11.8%	1.0%	—	4.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	17.2%	10.8%	1.8%	16.3%	10.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	27.2%	11.2%	1.4%	—	9.2%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	16.1%	14.2%	1.5%	20.3%	8.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	28.1%	19.2%	1.7%	—	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	95.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
ICON	48%	94.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	94.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	92.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	91.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	90.1°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	90.5°F	2.6°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260914-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 10 · 03:10 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗