KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

83%

66%

37%

35%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 60.3¢Risks 60.30u

EPSNO 39.7¢Risks 39.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +39.70u · EPS −39.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	61.7%	19.9%	39.4%	54.8%	37.7%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	61.7%	19.9%	39.4%	54.8%	37.7%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	61.7%	19.9%	39.4%	54.8%	70.9%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	61.7%	19.9%	25.7%	54.8%	70.9%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	61.7%	19.9%	25.7%	54.8%	70.9%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	61.7%	19.9%	25.7%	54.8%	70.9%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	59.6%	19.9%	25.7%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	59.6%	19.9%	25.7%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	59.6%	19.9%	25.7%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	59.6%	19.9%	25.7%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	59.6%	19.9%	25.7%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	59.6%	19.9%	31.8%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	59.6%	19.9%	31.8%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	59.6%	19.9%	31.8%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	62.4%	19.9%	31.8%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	62.4%	17.3%	31.8%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	62.4%	17.3%	31.8%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	62.4%	17.3%	31.8%	50.6%	70.9%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	62.4%	17.3%	31.8%	50.6%	64.9%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	62.4%	17.3%	27.2%	50.6%	64.9%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	62.4%	17.3%	27.2%	50.6%	64.9%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	62.4%	17.3%	27.2%	50.6%	64.9%
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	68.4%	17.3%	27.2%	61.4%	64.9%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	68.4%	17.3%	27.2%	61.4%	64.9%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	68.4%	17.3%	27.2%	61.4%	64.9%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	68.4%	17.3%	27.2%	61.4%	64.9%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	68.4%	17.3%	27.2%	61.4%	64.9%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	68.4%	25.5%	27.2%	61.4%	64.9%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	68.4%	25.5%	27.2%	61.4%	64.9%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	68.4%	25.5%	27.2%	61.4%	64.9%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	72.5%	25.5%	27.2%	61.4%	64.9%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	72.5%	25.5%	27.2%	61.4%	65.5%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	72.5%	25.5%	27.2%	61.4%	65.5%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	72.5%	25.5%	27.2%	61.4%	65.5%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	72.5%	25.5%	27.2%	61.4%	68.0%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	72.5%	25.5%	34.9%	61.4%	68.0%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	72.5%	25.5%	34.9%	61.4%	68.0%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	72.5%	25.5%	34.9%	61.4%	68.0%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	73.2%	25.5%	34.9%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	73.2%	25.5%	34.9%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	73.2%	25.5%	34.9%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	73.2%	25.5%	34.9%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	73.2%	25.5%	34.9%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	73.2%	25.5%	35.8%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	73.2%	25.5%	35.8%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	73.2%	26.8%	35.8%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	68.4%	23.8%	35.8%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	68.4%	23.8%	35.8%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	68.4%	23.8%	35.8%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	68.4%	23.8%	35.8%	50.0%	68.0%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	68.4%	23.8%	35.8%	50.0%	46.6%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	68.4%	23.8%	37.6%	50.0%	46.6%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	68.4%	23.8%	37.6%	50.0%	46.6%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	68.4%	23.8%	37.6%	50.0%	46.6%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	79.5%	23.8%	37.6%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	79.5%	23.8%	37.6%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	79.5%	23.8%	37.6%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	79.5%	23.8%	37.6%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	79.5%	23.8%	37.6%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	79.5%	35.4%	39.8%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	79.5%	35.4%	39.8%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	79.5%	35.4%	39.8%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	39.8%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	82.9%	40.1%	39.8%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	39.8%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	39.8%	59.3%	46.6%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	39.8%	59.3%	65.8%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	37.9%	59.3%	65.8%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	37.9%	59.3%	65.8%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	37.9%	59.3%	65.8%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	37.9%	85.2%	65.8%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	37.9%	85.2%	65.8%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	37.9%	85.2%	65.8%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	37.9%	85.2%	65.8%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	37.9%	85.2%	65.8%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	36.9%	85.2%	65.8%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	36.9%	85.2%	65.8%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	36.9%	85.2%	65.8%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	36.9%	85.2%	65.8%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	82.9%	35.4%	36.9%	85.2%	65.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	99.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	99.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	96.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	95.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	93.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	93.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	93.3°F	3.2°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗