KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

83%

66%

37%

35%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 60.3¢Risks 60.30u

EPSNO 39.7¢Risks 39.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +39.70u · EPS −39.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	2.5%	—	—	28.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	18.5%	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	79.7%	—	—	30.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	60.4%	10.5%	—	32.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	17.5%	74.6%	43.4%	—	37.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	55.3%	69.7%	28.9%	—	28.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	50.8%	78.8%	42.9%	—	28.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	15.3%	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	54.2%	77.5%	48.3%	39.3%	29.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	46.6%	82.7%	—	—	22.6%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	35.4%	86.9%	52.6%	—	43.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	62.4%	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	55.5%	87.1%	60.9%	—	58.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	66.5%	86.8%	—	—	44.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	74.5%	80.3%	52.9%	—	57.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	73.5%	81.7%	—	—	69.2%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	71.5%	81.7%	44.9%	0.2%	59.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	75.5%	81.0%	—	—	56.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	81.0%	74.5%	58.7%	—	77.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	80.2%	82.5%	0.0%	—	74.2%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	82.5%	0.3%	27.0%	68.0%	68.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	84.0%	85.5%	26.3%	—	70.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	68.0%	84.9%	41.3%	0.5%	84.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	69.8%	84.2%	42.3%	—	79.1%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	77.0%	83.5%	44.6%	78.0%	83.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	86.8%	81.8%	39.0%	—	82.7%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	91.1%	76.6%	52.9%	81.8%	83.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	88.8%	88.0%	35.2%	—	72.8%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	87.5%	94.3%	59.4%	83.9%	71.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	93.7%	96.6%	67.6%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	99.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	99.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	96.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	95.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	93.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	93.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	93.3°F	3.2°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗