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KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 12 · 14:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
76%
ICON
71%
HRES
53%
EPS
38%
WN2
29%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 52.4¢Risks 52.40u
VS
WN2NO 47.6¢Risks 47.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.60u · WN2 −47.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 77.0% · 2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00AIFS Single: 77.0% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00AIFS Single: 77.0% · 2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00AIFS Single: 77.0% · 2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00AIFS Single: 77.0% · 2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00AIFS Single: 77.0% · 2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.6% · 2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.6% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.6% · 2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.6% · 2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.6% · 2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.6% · 2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.6% · 2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.6% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.6% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.6% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.6% · 2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.4% · 2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.7% · 2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.7% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.7% · 2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00IFS HRES: 80.1% · 2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00IFS HRES: 80.1% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00IFS HRES: 80.1% · 2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00IFS HRES: 80.1% · 2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00IFS HRES: 80.1% · 2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00IFS HRES: 80.1% · 2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00IFS HRES: 53.2% · 2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00ICON: 57.6% · 2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00ICON: 57.6% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00ICON: 57.6% · 2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00ICON: 57.6% · 2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00ICON: 57.6% · 2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00ICON: 57.6% · 2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00ICON: 70.6% · 2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:0009-12 03:1709-12 09:1809-12 14:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:0077.0%24.6%27.7%80.1%57.6%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:0077.0%24.6%27.7%80.1%57.6%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:0077.0%24.6%27.7%80.1%57.6%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:0077.0%24.6%34.0%80.1%57.6%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:0077.0%24.6%34.0%80.1%57.6%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:0077.0%24.6%34.0%80.1%57.6%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:0075.6%24.6%34.0%54.4%70.5%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:0075.6%24.6%34.0%54.4%70.5%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:0075.6%24.6%34.0%54.4%70.5%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:0075.6%24.6%34.0%54.4%70.5%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:0075.6%24.6%34.0%54.4%70.5%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:0075.6%38.4%29.1%54.4%70.5%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:0075.6%38.4%29.1%54.4%70.5%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:0075.6%38.4%29.1%54.4%70.5%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:0075.6%38.4%29.1%54.4%70.5%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:0075.7%38.4%29.1%53.2%70.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single76%98.6°F4.5°F2026-09-12 06:00Pending
National Blend72%96.8°F2.2°F2026-09-12 06:00Pending
ICON71%97.6°F3.9°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%96.0°F3.9°F2026-09-12 02:00Pending
IFS HRES53%96.0°F6.2°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble38%94.7°F2.7°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 229%93.5°F3.6°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE96
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 96°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗