KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 12 · 14:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

71%

53%

38%

29%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.4¢Risks 52.40u

WN2NO 47.6¢Risks 47.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.60u · WN2 −47.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	1.7%	—	—	23.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	14.4%	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	74.6%	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	53.5%	7.7%	—	26.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	13.2%	68.3%	36.4%	—	31.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	47.7%	62.7%	22.8%	—	22.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	42.9%	72.6%	35.2%	—	21.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	11.0%	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	45.8%	70.7%	40.1%	31.5%	22.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	38.2%	76.7%	—	—	16.7%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	27.7%	81.6%	43.9%	—	34.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	53.6%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	46.3%	81.6%	51.8%	—	49.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	57.5%	81.0%	—	—	35.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	66.1%	72.9%	43.2%	—	48.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	64.7%	74.3%	—	—	59.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	62.2%	74.1%	34.9%	0.1%	49.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	66.5%	73.0%	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	72.7%	64.9%	47.8%	—	67.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	71.4%	74.2%	0.0%	—	64.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	74.0%	0.1%	18.3%	57.0%	57.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	75.6%	77.5%	17.5%	—	59.5%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	56.2%	76.4%	29.8%	0.2%	75.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	57.7%	75.2%	30.2%	—	68.7%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	65.7%	73.9%	31.9%	66.9%	73.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	77.9%	71.2%	26.5%	—	72.4%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	83.7%	64.2%	38.6%	70.7%	73.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	79.8%	78.7%	22.4%	—	59.0%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	77.4%	88.3%	43.7%	72.4%	56.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	86.9%	92.1%	51.6%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	76%	98.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
National Blend	72%	96.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	71%	97.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	96.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	96.0°F	6.2°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	94.7°F	2.7°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	93.5°F	3.6°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE96
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 96°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗