KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 10 · 02:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

71%

67%

63%

63%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 72.8¢Risks 72.85u

HRESNO 27.2¢Risks 27.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +27.15u · HRES −27.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	73.1%	62.4%	62.4%	65.2%	52.8%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	73.1%	62.4%	62.4%	65.2%	52.8%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	73.1%	62.4%	62.4%	65.2%	52.8%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	73.1%	62.4%	62.4%	65.2%	52.8%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	73.1%	62.4%	62.4%	65.2%	52.8%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	73.1%	62.4%	70.1%	65.2%	52.8%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	73.1%	62.4%	70.1%	65.2%	52.8%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	73.1%	62.4%	70.1%	65.2%	52.8%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	63.5%	62.4%	70.1%	65.2%	52.8%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	63.5%	62.4%	70.1%	65.2%	53.3%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	63.5%	69.1%	70.1%	65.2%	53.3%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	63.5%	69.1%	70.1%	65.2%	53.3%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	63.5%	69.1%	70.1%	65.2%	65.1%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	63.5%	69.1%	62.4%	65.2%	65.1%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	63.5%	69.1%	62.4%	65.2%	65.1%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	63.5%	69.1%	62.4%	65.2%	65.1%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	64.9%	69.1%	62.4%	62.8%	83.2%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	64.9%	69.1%	62.4%	62.8%	83.2%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	64.9%	69.1%	62.4%	62.8%	83.2%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	64.9%	69.1%	62.4%	62.8%	83.2%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	64.9%	69.1%	62.4%	62.8%	83.2%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	64.9%	69.1%	63.2%	62.8%	83.2%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	64.9%	69.1%	63.2%	62.8%	83.2%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00	64.9%	69.1%	63.2%	62.8%	83.2%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	70.7%	69.1%	63.2%	62.8%	83.2%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	70.7%	66.8%	63.2%	62.8%	82.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	83%	99.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	93.5°F	5.5°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	91.8°F	3.0°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	92.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	92.5°F	6.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	91.4°F	6.1°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗