KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 10 · 02:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

71%

67%

63%

63%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 72.8¢Risks 72.85u

HRESNO 27.2¢Risks 27.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +27.15u · HRES −27.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	30.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	75.6%	—	—	46.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	89.9%	—	—	40.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	75.1%	—	—	62.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	48.6%	59.1%	43.7%	—	45.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	68.3%	90.4%	61.6%	—	58.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	73.6%	89.7%	62.7%	64.9%	60.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	91.1%	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	60.3%	95.3%	62.5%	—	73.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	46.7%	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	72.8%	96.9%	57.5%	—	83.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	68.2%	96.6%	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	89.1%	95.7%	56.1%	—	80.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	86.5%	97.1%	—	—	87.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	88.1%	97.5%	40.0%	—	83.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	85.2%	96.2%	—	—	81.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	55.8%	94.6%	64.3%	—	90.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	90.0%	97.0%	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	51.0%	—	51.0%	88.2%	89.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	89.4%	98.5%	—	—	90.4%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	87.5%	98.8%	62.9%	—	95.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	92.1%	97.8%	0.6%	—	94.6%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	89.0%	98.1%	53.5%	94.9%	95.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	95.2%	97.7%	72.7%	—	95.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	96.0%	97.0%	72.4%	96.5%	95.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	96.5%	98.7%	74.1%	—	92.3%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	94.3%	98.4%	73.9%	97.4%	92.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	97.5%	99.5%	75.8%	—	93.3%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	97.3%	99.5%	78.8%	98.1%	96.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	97.3%	97.8%	68.9%	—	94.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	97.8%	99.3%	77.4%	98.4%	96.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	98.9%	99.9%	92.1%	—	98.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	83%	99.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	93.5°F	5.5°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	91.8°F	3.0°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	92.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	92.5°F	6.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	91.4°F	6.1°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗