KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

78%

70%

64%

52%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.5¢Risks 65.45u

WN2NO 34.5¢Risks 34.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.55u · WN2 −34.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	42.8%	18.4%	30.6%	37.2%	70.6%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	42.8%	18.4%	30.6%	37.2%	70.6%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	42.8%	18.4%	30.6%	37.2%	59.4%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	42.8%	18.4%	32.1%	37.2%	59.4%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	42.8%	18.4%	32.1%	37.2%	59.4%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	42.8%	18.4%	32.1%	37.2%	59.4%
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	41.2%	18.4%	32.1%	58.9%	59.4%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	41.2%	18.4%	32.1%	58.9%	59.4%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	41.2%	18.4%	32.1%	58.9%	59.4%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	41.2%	18.4%	32.1%	58.9%	59.4%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	41.2%	18.4%	32.1%	58.9%	59.4%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	41.2%	19.1%	37.7%	58.9%	59.4%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	41.2%	19.1%	37.7%	58.9%	59.4%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	41.2%	19.1%	37.7%	58.9%	59.4%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	37.7%	58.9%	59.4%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	37.7%	58.9%	60.0%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	37.7%	58.9%	60.0%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	37.7%	58.9%	60.0%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	37.7%	58.9%	64.0%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	36.0%	58.9%	64.0%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	36.0%	58.9%	64.0%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	50.0%	19.1%	36.0%	58.9%	64.0%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	55.9%	19.1%	36.0%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	55.9%	19.1%	36.0%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	55.9%	19.1%	36.0%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	55.9%	19.1%	36.0%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	55.9%	19.1%	36.0%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	55.9%	19.1%	46.4%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	55.9%	19.1%	46.4%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	55.9%	19.9%	46.4%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	53.7%	17.0%	46.4%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	53.7%	17.0%	46.4%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	53.7%	17.0%	46.4%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	53.7%	17.0%	46.4%	49.4%	64.0%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	53.7%	17.0%	46.4%	49.4%	46.5%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	53.7%	17.0%	49.1%	49.4%	46.5%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	53.7%	17.0%	49.1%	49.4%	46.5%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	53.7%	17.0%	49.1%	49.4%	46.5%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	63.3%	17.0%	49.1%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	63.3%	17.0%	49.1%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	63.3%	17.0%	49.1%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	63.3%	17.0%	49.1%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	63.3%	17.0%	49.1%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	63.3%	36.9%	51.9%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	63.3%	36.9%	51.9%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	63.3%	36.9%	51.9%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	67.0%	36.9%	51.9%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	67.0%	43.4%	51.9%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	67.0%	38.5%	51.9%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	67.0%	38.5%	51.9%	52.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	67.0%	38.5%	51.9%	52.0%	57.6%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	67.0%	38.5%	48.1%	52.0%	57.6%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	67.0%	38.5%	48.1%	52.0%	57.6%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	67.0%	38.5%	48.1%	52.0%	57.6%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	69.1%	38.5%	48.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	69.1%	38.5%	48.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	69.1%	38.5%	48.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	69.1%	38.5%	48.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	69.1%	38.5%	48.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	69.1%	36.9%	47.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	69.1%	36.9%	47.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	69.1%	36.9%	47.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	67.0%	36.9%	47.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	67.0%	36.9%	47.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	67.0%	36.9%	47.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	67.0%	36.9%	47.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	67.0%	36.9%	47.1%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	67.0%	36.9%	57.7%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	67.0%	36.9%	57.7%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	67.0%	36.9%	57.7%	79.8%	57.6%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	65.6%	36.9%	57.7%	49.2%	73.3%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	65.6%	36.9%	57.7%	49.2%	73.3%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	65.6%	36.9%	57.7%	49.2%	73.3%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	65.6%	36.9%	57.7%	49.2%	73.3%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	65.6%	36.9%	57.7%	49.2%	73.3%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	65.6%	50.0%	52.1%	49.2%	73.3%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	65.6%	50.0%	52.1%	49.2%	73.3%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	65.6%	50.0%	52.1%	49.2%	73.3%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	67.9%	50.0%	52.1%	49.2%	73.3%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	67.9%	50.0%	52.1%	49.4%	73.2%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	69.0%	78.7%	48.9%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	69.0%	78.7%	48.9%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	69.0%	78.7%	48.9%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	69.0%	78.7%	48.9%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	72.8%	78.7%	48.9%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	72.8%	78.7%	48.9%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	72.8%	78.7%	48.9%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	72.8%	78.7%	48.9%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	72.8%	78.7%	52.2%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	72.8%	78.7%	52.2%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	72.8%	78.7%	52.2%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	72.8%	78.7%	52.2%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	69.8%	78.7%	52.2%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	69.8%	78.7%	52.2%	78.0%	64.1%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	69.8%	78.7%	52.2%	78.0%	64.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	96.5°F	2.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	98.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	96.8°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	64%	95.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	94.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	95.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	94.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 10 · 03:10 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗