KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

78%

70%

64%

52%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.5¢Risks 65.45u

WN2NO 34.5¢Risks 34.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.55u · WN2 −34.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	52.5%	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	73.2%	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	23.0%	31.7%	19.4%	—	20.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	39.9%	71.5%	33.0%	—	30.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	44.7%	69.1%	33.0%	35.1%	30.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	71.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	29.5%	81.1%	31.6%	—	43.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	18.4%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	40.9%	84.8%	25.8%	—	55.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	35.0%	83.3%	—	—	46.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	63.7%	79.8%	23.4%	—	49.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	58.0%	83.9%	—	—	58.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	60.0%	85.1%	11.9%	—	51.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	53.8%	79.7%	—	—	48.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	20.3%	73.7%	27.1%	—	63.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	60.9%	81.0%	—	—	63.7%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	15.7%	—	15.7%	56.1%	58.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	57.4%	86.8%	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	52.2%	87.5%	22.1%	—	70.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	61.1%	81.0%	0.0%	—	68.5%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	52.3%	81.7%	14.0%	68.0%	69.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	67.5%	78.4%	27.3%	—	67.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	69.2%	73.4%	25.6%	71.3%	65.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	69.8%	82.6%	25.9%	—	55.1%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	59.3%	79.0%	24.0%	72.7%	54.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	71.2%	87.5%	24.2%	—	54.2%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	68.2%	87.0%	25.6%	73.2%	65.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	66.2%	68.9%	15.3%	—	53.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	66.8%	80.8%	20.3%	71.0%	59.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	73.3%	94.2%	40.2%	—	67.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	96.5°F	2.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	98.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	96.8°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	64%	95.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	94.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	95.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	94.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 10 · 03:10 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗