KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 13 · 10:08 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

97%

93%

84%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 91.8¢Risks 45.88u

WN2NO 8.3¢Risks 4.13u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.13u · WN2 −4.13u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	59.3%	60.4%	63.2%	88.3%	61.7%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	59.3%	60.4%	63.2%	88.3%	61.7%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	59.3%	60.4%	63.2%	88.3%	61.7%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	59.3%	60.4%	63.2%	88.3%	61.7%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	59.3%	60.4%	63.2%	88.3%	61.7%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	59.3%	79.2%	60.8%	88.3%	61.7%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	59.3%	79.2%	60.8%	88.3%	61.7%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	59.3%	79.2%	60.8%	88.3%	61.7%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	65.5%	79.2%	60.8%	88.3%	61.7%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	65.5%	79.2%	60.8%	88.3%	62.0%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	65.5%	79.2%	60.8%	88.3%	62.0%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	65.5%	79.2%	60.8%	88.3%	62.0%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	65.5%	79.2%	60.8%	88.3%	79.6%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	65.5%	79.2%	64.8%	88.3%	79.6%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	65.5%	79.2%	64.8%	88.3%	79.6%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	65.5%	79.2%	64.8%	88.3%	79.6%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	74.9%	79.2%	64.8%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	74.9%	79.2%	64.8%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	74.9%	79.2%	64.8%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	74.9%	79.2%	64.8%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	74.9%	79.2%	64.8%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	74.9%	79.2%	78.9%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	74.9%	79.2%	78.9%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	74.9%	79.2%	78.9%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	81.8%	75.4%	78.9%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	81.8%	75.4%	78.9%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	81.8%	75.4%	78.9%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	81.8%	75.4%	78.9%	76.3%	83.9%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	81.8%	75.4%	78.9%	76.3%	78.1%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	81.8%	75.4%	77.6%	76.3%	78.1%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	81.8%	75.4%	77.6%	76.3%	78.1%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	81.8%	75.4%	77.6%	76.3%	78.1%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	88.3%	75.4%	77.6%	85.7%	78.1%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	88.3%	75.4%	77.6%	85.7%	78.1%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	88.3%	75.4%	77.6%	85.7%	78.1%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	88.3%	75.4%	77.6%	85.7%	78.1%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	88.3%	75.4%	77.6%	85.7%	78.1%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	88.3%	89.4%	84.9%	85.7%	78.1%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	88.3%	89.4%	84.9%	85.7%	78.1%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	88.3%	89.4%	84.9%	85.7%	78.1%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	91.3%	89.4%	84.9%	85.7%	78.1%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	91.3%	91.8%	84.9%	85.7%	77.9%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	91.3%	89.7%	84.9%	85.7%	77.9%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	91.3%	89.7%	84.9%	85.7%	77.9%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	91.3%	89.7%	84.9%	85.7%	83.6%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	91.3%	89.7%	84.4%	85.7%	83.6%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	91.3%	89.7%	84.4%	85.7%	83.6%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	91.3%	89.7%	84.4%	85.7%	83.6%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	90.7%	89.7%	84.4%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	90.7%	89.7%	84.4%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	90.7%	89.7%	84.4%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	90.7%	89.7%	84.4%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	90.7%	89.7%	84.4%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	90.7%	89.0%	84.9%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	90.7%	89.0%	84.9%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	90.7%	89.0%	84.9%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	88.7%	89.0%	84.9%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	88.7%	89.0%	84.9%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	88.7%	89.0%	84.9%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	88.7%	89.0%	84.9%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	88.7%	89.0%	84.9%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	88.7%	89.0%	84.9%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	88.7%	89.0%	84.9%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	88.7%	89.0%	84.9%	94.6%	83.6%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	91.0%	89.0%	84.9%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	91.0%	89.0%	84.9%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	91.0%	89.0%	84.9%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	91.0%	89.0%	84.9%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	91.0%	89.0%	84.9%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	91.0%	99.1%	84.5%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	91.0%	99.1%	84.5%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	91.0%	99.1%	84.5%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	91.9%	99.1%	84.5%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	92.0%	99.1%	84.5%	75.9%	94.5%
2026-09-12T15:20:10+00:00	92.0%	99.6%	84.5%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	92.0%	99.6%	84.5%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	92.0%	99.6%	84.5%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	92.0%	99.6%	82.7%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	92.0%	99.6%	82.7%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	92.0%	99.6%	82.7%	81.3%	94.5%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	90.4%	99.6%	82.7%	81.3%	94.9%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	90.4%	99.6%	82.7%	81.3%	94.9%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	90.4%	99.6%	82.7%	81.3%	94.9%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	90.4%	99.6%	82.7%	81.3%	94.9%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	90.4%	99.6%	82.7%	91.7%	94.9%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	90.4%	99.5%	84.0%	91.7%	94.8%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	90.4%	99.5%	84.0%	91.7%	94.8%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	90.4%	99.5%	84.0%	91.7%	94.8%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	84.0%	91.7%	94.8%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	84.0%	91.7%	94.8%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	84.0%	91.7%	94.8%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	84.0%	91.7%	94.8%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	84.0%	91.7%	94.8%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	84.0%	91.7%	94.8%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	84.0%	91.7%	94.8%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	84.0%	91.7%	94.8%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	93.4%	99.5%	84.0%	97.3%	96.8%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	93.4%	99.5%	84.0%	97.3%	96.8%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	93.4%	99.5%	84.0%	97.3%	96.8%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	93.4%	99.5%	84.0%	97.3%	96.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	94.9°F	2.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	99%	94.7°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	99.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	97%	98.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	96.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	89%	95.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	93.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗