KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 13 · 10:08 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

97%

93%

84%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 91.8¢Risks 45.88u

WN2NO 8.3¢Risks 4.13u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.13u · WN2 −4.13u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	83.8%	—	—	52.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	91.0%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	78.8%	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	43.3%	88.9%	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	76.5%	47.2%	52.8%	75.9%	63.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	65.0%	96.5%	60.1%	—	75.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	74.9%	98.9%	58.3%	—	87.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	93.1%	—	—	5.7%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	84.1%	98.0%	48.4%	—	86.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	45.9%	96.7%	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	93.4%	98.1%	41.7%	—	89.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	73.3%	98.3%	—	—	86.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	94.3%	58.7%	—	94.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	55.4%	98.7%	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	—	39.1%	—	93.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	55.7%	99.6%	—	—	93.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	81.0%	99.1%	66.1%	—	97.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	96.5%	99.0%	—	—	95.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	91.0%	98.8%	55.1%	60.2%	98.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	97.5%	99.6%	—	—	98.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.6%	98.7%	99.5%	59.7%	64.9%	98.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	98.9%	99.7%	1.4%	—	97.8%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	98.7%	99.9%	61.5%	—	97.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	98.4%	99.9%	58.4%	—	98.0%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	98.9%	99.9%	80.9%	98.7%	99.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	98.5%	99.8%	74.1%	—	98.9%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	99.2%	99.9%	78.0%	99.1%	99.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	99.6%	99.9%	83.6%	—	99.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	99.7%	99.6%	94.9%	99.2%	99.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	99.6%	99.9%	92.5%	—	96.8%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.6%	100.0%	97.1%	99.5%	96.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	99.9%	100.0%	98.7%	—	99.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	94.9°F	2.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	99%	94.7°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	99.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	97%	98.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	96.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	89%	95.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	93.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗