KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 16 · 04:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

94%

92%

83%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 90.5¢Risks 45.27u

WN2NO 9.5¢Risks 4.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.73u · WN2 −4.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	44.9%	37.4%	47.6%	80.6%	53.7%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	44.9%	37.4%	47.6%	80.6%	53.7%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	44.9%	37.4%	47.6%	80.6%	53.7%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	44.9%	37.4%	47.6%	80.6%	53.7%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	44.9%	37.4%	47.6%	80.6%	53.7%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	44.9%	57.4%	44.1%	80.6%	53.7%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	44.9%	57.4%	44.1%	80.6%	53.7%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	44.9%	57.4%	44.1%	80.6%	53.7%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	51.5%	57.4%	44.1%	80.6%	53.7%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	51.4%	57.4%	44.1%	80.6%	54.1%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	51.4%	57.4%	44.1%	80.6%	54.1%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	51.4%	57.4%	44.1%	80.6%	54.1%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	51.4%	57.4%	44.1%	80.6%	73.3%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	51.4%	57.4%	48.3%	80.6%	73.3%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	51.4%	57.4%	48.3%	80.6%	73.3%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	51.4%	57.4%	48.3%	80.6%	73.3%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	62.1%	57.4%	48.3%	65.2%	78.4%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	62.1%	57.4%	48.3%	65.2%	78.4%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	62.1%	57.4%	48.3%	65.2%	78.4%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	62.1%	57.4%	48.3%	65.2%	78.4%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	62.1%	57.4%	48.3%	65.2%	78.4%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	62.1%	57.4%	64.8%	65.2%	78.4%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	62.1%	57.4%	64.8%	65.2%	78.4%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	62.1%	57.4%	64.8%	65.2%	78.4%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	70.7%	52.5%	64.8%	65.2%	78.4%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	70.7%	52.5%	64.8%	65.2%	78.4%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	79.9%	70.1%	72.0%	90.4%	75.2%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	79.9%	70.1%	72.0%	90.4%	75.2%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	79.9%	70.1%	72.0%	90.4%	75.2%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	79.9%	70.1%	72.0%	90.4%	75.2%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	79.9%	70.1%	72.0%	90.4%	75.2%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	79.9%	70.1%	72.0%	90.4%	75.2%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	82.6%	70.1%	72.0%	70.7%	89.4%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	82.6%	70.1%	72.0%	70.7%	89.4%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	82.6%	70.1%	72.0%	70.7%	89.4%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	82.6%	70.1%	72.0%	70.7%	89.4%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	82.6%	70.1%	72.0%	70.7%	89.4%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	82.6%	92.3%	70.3%	70.7%	89.4%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	82.6%	92.3%	70.3%	70.7%	89.4%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	82.6%	92.3%	70.3%	70.7%	89.4%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	84.1%	92.3%	70.3%	70.7%	89.4%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	84.2%	92.3%	70.3%	66.7%	89.4%
2026-09-12T15:20:10+00:00	84.2%	95.2%	70.3%	70.8%	89.4%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	84.2%	95.2%	70.3%	70.8%	89.4%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	84.2%	95.2%	70.3%	70.8%	89.4%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	84.2%	95.2%	67.7%	70.8%	89.4%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	84.2%	95.2%	67.7%	70.8%	89.4%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	84.2%	95.2%	67.7%	70.8%	89.4%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	81.6%	95.2%	67.7%	70.8%	90.1%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	81.6%	95.2%	67.7%	70.8%	90.1%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	81.6%	95.2%	67.7%	70.8%	90.1%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	81.6%	95.2%	67.7%	70.8%	90.1%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	81.6%	95.2%	67.7%	85.1%	90.1%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	81.6%	94.7%	69.4%	85.1%	90.0%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	81.6%	94.7%	69.4%	85.1%	90.0%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	81.6%	94.7%	69.4%	85.1%	90.0%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	85.6%	94.7%	69.4%	85.1%	90.0%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	85.6%	94.7%	69.4%	85.1%	90.0%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	85.6%	94.7%	69.4%	85.1%	90.0%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	85.6%	94.7%	69.4%	85.1%	90.0%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	85.6%	94.7%	69.4%	85.1%	90.0%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	85.6%	94.7%	69.4%	85.1%	90.0%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	85.6%	94.7%	69.4%	85.1%	90.0%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	85.6%	94.7%	69.4%	85.1%	90.0%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	86.0%	94.7%	69.4%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	86.0%	94.7%	69.4%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	86.0%	94.7%	69.4%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	86.0%	94.7%	69.4%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	86.0%	97.5%	74.0%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	86.0%	97.5%	74.0%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	86.0%	97.5%	74.0%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	86.0%	97.5%	74.0%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	88.6%	97.5%	74.0%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	88.6%	97.5%	74.0%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	74.0%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	74.0%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	73.2%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	73.2%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	73.2%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	73.2%	93.8%	92.4%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	89.4%	97.7%	73.2%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	89.4%	97.7%	73.2%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	89.4%	97.7%	73.2%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	89.4%	97.7%	73.2%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	89.4%	97.7%	74.9%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	89.4%	97.7%	74.9%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	89.4%	97.7%	74.9%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	89.4%	97.7%	74.9%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	74.9%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	74.9%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	74.9%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	74.9%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	83.6%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	83.6%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	83.6%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	88.6%	97.7%	83.6%	92.5%	92.4%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	92.5%	97.7%	83.6%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	92.5%	97.7%	83.6%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	92.5%	97.7%	83.6%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	92.5%	97.7%	83.6%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	92.5%	99.0%	83.6%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	92.5%	99.0%	83.6%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	92.5%	99.0%	83.6%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	92.5%	99.0%	83.6%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	92.5%	99.0%	83.5%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	92.5%	99.0%	83.5%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	83.5%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	83.5%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	83.1%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	83.1%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	83.1%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	83.1%	94.8%	69.6%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	92.2%	99.1%	83.1%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	92.2%	99.1%	83.1%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	92.2%	99.1%	83.1%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	92.2%	99.1%	83.1%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	92.2%	99.2%	82.4%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	92.2%	99.2%	82.4%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	92.2%	99.2%	82.4%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	92.2%	99.2%	82.4%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	82.4%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	82.4%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	82.4%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	82.4%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	92.3%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	92.3%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	92.3%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	92.3%	96.5%	82.3%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00	92.8%	98.4%	88.4%	91.7%	94.3%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	92.8%	98.4%	88.4%	91.7%	94.3%
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	93.7%	98.5%	82.6%	95.2%	92.5%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	93.7%	98.5%	82.6%	95.2%	92.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	96.9°F	2.3°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	97.2°F	2.6°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	98%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	98.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	98.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	92%	96.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	94.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 92°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗