KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 16 · 04:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

94%

92%

83%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 90.5¢Risks 45.27u

WN2NO 9.5¢Risks 4.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.73u · WN2 −4.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	75.5%	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	84.7%	—	—	56.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	68.2%	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	30.6%	81.1%	—	—	41.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	64.4%	33.6%	38.9%	63.8%	50.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	50.7%	92.6%	45.6%	—	62.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	61.3%	97.1%	43.2%	—	77.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	86.3%	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	72.6%	95.2%	33.0%	—	75.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	30.4%	92.4%	—	—	78.2%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	86.2%	95.1%	26.5%	—	79.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	57.6%	95.5%	—	—	75.4%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	87.4%	41.3%	—	87.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	37.6%	96.2%	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	23.0%	—	85.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	37.0%	98.4%	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	65.2%	97.0%	47.1%	—	91.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	90.4%	96.5%	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	79.5%	96.0%	34.9%	39.8%	94.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	92.4%	98.2%	—	—	94.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	95.3%	98.0%	38.2%	43.5%	94.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	95.8%	98.7%	0.3%	—	92.5%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	94.9%	99.4%	38.5%	—	92.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	93.8%	99.4%	34.7%	—	92.6%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	95.1%	99.2%	59.9%	94.5%	97.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	93.6%	98.8%	50.0%	—	95.1%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	96.0%	99.2%	54.0%	95.4%	95.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	97.5%	99.3%	61.0%	—	95.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	97.9%	97.5%	81.8%	95.3%	96.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	97.1%	98.7%	75.2%	—	86.4%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	96.6%	99.4%	86.6%	96.3%	84.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.4%	98.4%	99.8%	92.1%	—	96.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	96.9°F	2.3°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	97.2°F	2.6°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	98%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	98.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	98.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	92%	96.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	94.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 92°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗