KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

74%

70%

64%

57%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

EPSNO 27.7¢Risks 27.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +27.70u · EPS −27.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	64.2%	40.1%	56.7%	59.0%	75.3%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	64.2%	40.1%	56.7%	59.0%	75.3%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	64.2%	40.1%	56.7%	59.0%	62.8%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	64.2%	40.1%	55.0%	59.0%	62.8%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	64.2%	40.1%	55.0%	59.0%	62.8%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	64.2%	40.1%	55.0%	59.0%	62.8%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	73.7%	40.1%	55.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	73.7%	40.1%	55.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	73.7%	40.1%	55.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	73.7%	40.1%	55.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	73.7%	40.1%	55.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	73.7%	57.1%	64.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	73.7%	57.1%	64.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	73.7%	57.1%	64.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	78.8%	57.1%	64.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	78.9%	62.6%	64.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	78.9%	58.3%	64.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	78.9%	58.3%	64.0%	73.1%	62.8%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	78.9%	58.3%	64.0%	73.1%	70.3%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	78.9%	58.3%	63.2%	73.1%	70.3%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	78.9%	58.3%	63.2%	73.1%	70.3%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	78.9%	58.3%	63.2%	73.1%	70.3%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	77.8%	58.3%	63.2%	87.6%	70.3%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	77.8%	58.3%	63.2%	87.6%	70.3%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	77.8%	58.3%	63.2%	87.6%	70.3%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	77.8%	58.3%	63.2%	87.6%	70.3%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	77.8%	58.3%	63.2%	87.6%	70.3%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	77.8%	57.0%	64.0%	87.6%	70.3%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	77.8%	57.0%	64.0%	87.6%	70.3%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	77.8%	57.0%	64.0%	87.6%	70.3%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	74.3%	57.0%	64.0%	87.6%	70.3%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	74.3%	57.0%	64.0%	87.6%	70.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	100.2°F	6.7°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	96.0°F	5.4°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	70%	96.1°F	6.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	94.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	93.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	93.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	50%	92.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗