KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

74%

70%

64%

57%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

EPSNO 27.7¢Risks 27.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +27.70u · EPS −27.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	70.7%	—	—	35.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	80.7%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	62.2%	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	24.9%	76.2%	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	57.7%	27.5%	32.3%	57.0%	43.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	43.4%	89.7%	38.5%	—	55.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	53.8%	95.6%	35.8%	—	71.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	81.6%	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	65.5%	92.8%	26.1%	—	68.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	23.7%	89.0%	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	81.0%	92.6%	20.1%	—	73.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	49.1%	93.0%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	—	82.2%	33.0%	—	82.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	29.4%	94.0%	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	16.6%	—	79.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	28.4%	97.1%	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	55.8%	94.9%	37.6%	—	87.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	85.4%	94.0%	—	—	83.6%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	71.5%	93.3%	25.9%	30.3%	90.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	87.9%	96.7%	—	—	90.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	91.9%	96.2%	28.2%	33.1%	90.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	92.5%	97.4%	0.1%	—	87.7%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	91.0%	98.7%	28.0%	—	87.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	89.2%	98.6%	24.4%	—	87.4%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	91.0%	98.2%	47.5%	90.0%	94.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	88.5%	97.4%	37.3%	—	90.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	92.1%	98.1%	40.7%	91.1%	91.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	94.6%	98.2%	47.2%	—	90.2%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	95.3%	94.5%	70.7%	90.5%	91.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.8%	93.5%	96.8%	61.9%	—	76.4%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	92.3%	98.2%	76.2%	91.7%	73.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	95.9%	99.2%	84.0%	—	92.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	100.2°F	6.7°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	96.0°F	5.4°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	70%	96.1°F	6.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	94.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	93.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	93.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	50%	92.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗