KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Sep 15 · 02:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

76%

69%

46%

44%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 62.9¢Risks 62.90u

WN2NO 37.1¢Risks 37.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +37.10u · WN2 −37.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T15:20:09+00:00	57.9%	40.6%	33.1%	44.6%	71.1%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	57.9%	40.6%	33.1%	44.6%	71.1%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	57.9%	40.6%	33.1%	44.6%	71.1%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	57.9%	40.6%	30.6%	44.6%	71.1%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	57.9%	40.6%	30.6%	44.6%	71.1%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	57.9%	40.6%	30.6%	44.6%	71.1%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	54.0%	40.6%	30.6%	44.6%	72.2%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	54.0%	40.6%	30.6%	44.6%	72.2%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	54.0%	40.6%	30.6%	44.6%	72.2%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	54.0%	40.6%	30.6%	44.6%	72.2%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	54.0%	40.6%	30.6%	64.0%	72.2%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	54.0%	38.8%	32.3%	64.0%	72.2%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	54.0%	38.8%	32.3%	64.0%	72.2%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	54.0%	38.8%	32.3%	64.0%	72.2%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	60.3%	38.8%	32.3%	64.0%	72.2%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	60.3%	38.8%	32.3%	64.0%	72.2%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	60.3%	38.8%	32.3%	64.0%	72.2%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	64.1%	65.5%	34.0%	77.3%	71.8%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	64.1%	65.5%	34.0%	77.3%	71.8%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	64.1%	65.5%	34.0%	77.3%	71.8%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	64.1%	65.5%	34.0%	77.3%	71.8%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	65.6%	65.5%	34.0%	74.2%	71.8%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	65.6%	65.5%	34.0%	74.2%	71.8%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	65.6%	65.5%	34.0%	74.2%	71.8%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	65.6%	65.5%	34.0%	74.2%	71.8%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	65.6%	65.5%	35.9%	74.2%	71.8%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	65.6%	65.5%	35.9%	74.2%	71.8%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	65.6%	65.5%	35.9%	74.2%	71.8%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	65.6%	65.5%	35.9%	74.2%	71.8%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	64.1%	65.5%	35.9%	74.2%	71.8%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	64.1%	65.5%	35.9%	74.2%	71.8%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	64.1%	65.5%	35.9%	74.2%	71.8%
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	70.6%	74.2%	48.0%	77.3%	30.4%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	70.6%	74.2%	48.0%	77.3%	30.4%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	70.6%	74.2%	44.6%	77.3%	30.4%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	70.6%	74.2%	44.6%	77.3%	30.4%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	70.6%	74.2%	44.6%	77.3%	30.4%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	70.6%	74.2%	44.6%	77.3%	30.4%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	69.8%	74.2%	44.6%	82.3%	45.9%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	69.8%	74.2%	44.6%	82.3%	45.9%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	69.8%	74.2%	44.6%	82.3%	45.9%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	69.8%	74.2%	44.6%	82.3%	45.9%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	69.8%	75.6%	43.5%	82.3%	45.9%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	69.8%	75.6%	43.5%	82.3%	45.9%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	69.8%	75.6%	43.5%	82.3%	45.9%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	69.8%	75.6%	43.5%	82.3%	45.9%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	69.0%	75.6%	43.5%	82.3%	45.9%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	69.0%	75.6%	43.5%	82.3%	45.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	99.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	97.1°F	2.3°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	97.7°F	4.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	95.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	96.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	46%	95.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	94.9°F	3.6°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE96
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 96°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗