KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Sep 15 · 02:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

76%

69%

46%

44%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 62.9¢Risks 62.90u

WN2NO 37.1¢Risks 37.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +37.10u · WN2 −37.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	54.1%	—	—	20.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	65.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	42.9%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	11.8%	58.1%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	36.9%	13.0%	16.2%	36.2%	24.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	23.7%	76.3%	19.9%	—	33.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	31.6%	87.1%	17.4%	—	50.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	62.3%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	42.1%	80.5%	10.8%	—	45.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	9.2%	73.0%	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	59.9%	79.3%	7.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	25.3%	79.9%	—	—	43.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	60.4%	13.6%	—	61.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	11.2%	81.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	4.8%	—	54.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	10.0%	88.2%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	27.9%	81.7%	14.7%	—	66.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	61.8%	78.9%	—	—	58.9%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	41.8%	76.5%	7.8%	9.8%	70.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	64.5%	85.0%	—	—	70.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	71.8%	83.1%	8.1%	10.4%	68.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	72.4%	86.5%	0.0%	—	62.2%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	68.0%	91.0%	7.2%	—	60.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	63.0%	90.3%	5.5%	—	59.5%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	65.8%	87.6%	15.9%	63.4%	73.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	59.0%	83.4%	9.8%	—	63.9%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	65.7%	85.9%	10.7%	63.2%	63.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	71.2%	85.3%	13.2%	—	59.7%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	72.0%	69.5%	29.3%	58.6%	61.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	64.8%	76.4%	20.2%	—	33.8%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	59.4%	81.9%	31.7%	57.9%	29.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	69.0%	87.7%	40.2%	—	56.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	99.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	97.1°F	2.3°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	97.7°F	4.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	95.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	96.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	46%	95.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	94.9°F	3.6°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE96
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 96°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗