KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 16 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

57%

47%

34%

28%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 50.3¢Risks 50.30u

ICONNO 49.7¢Risks 49.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +49.70u · ICON −49.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	47.5%	34.5%	19.0%	60.1%	55.9%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	47.5%	34.5%	28.5%	60.1%	55.9%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	47.5%	34.5%	28.5%	60.1%	55.9%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	47.5%	34.5%	28.5%	60.1%	55.9%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	47.5%	34.5%	28.5%	60.1%	55.9%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	53.6%	34.5%	28.5%	62.1%	15.2%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	53.6%	34.5%	28.5%	62.1%	15.2%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	53.6%	34.5%	28.5%	62.1%	15.2%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	53.6%	34.5%	28.5%	62.1%	15.2%
2026-09-14T10:57:25+00:00	53.6%	39.8%	28.5%	62.1%	15.2%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	53.6%	39.8%	28.5%	62.1%	15.2%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	53.6%	39.8%	28.5%	62.1%	15.2%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	53.6%	39.8%	28.5%	62.1%	15.2%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	53.6%	39.8%	28.6%	62.1%	15.2%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	53.6%	39.8%	28.6%	62.1%	15.2%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	51.8%	43.1%	23.8%	68.6%	26.9%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	51.8%	43.1%	23.8%	68.6%	26.9%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	51.8%	43.1%	41.3%	68.6%	26.9%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	51.8%	43.1%	41.3%	68.6%	26.9%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	51.8%	43.1%	41.3%	68.6%	26.9%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	51.8%	43.1%	41.3%	68.6%	26.9%
2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00	55.6%	43.1%	41.3%	69.3%	45.5%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	55.6%	43.1%	41.3%	69.3%	45.5%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	55.6%	43.1%	41.3%	69.3%	45.5%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	55.6%	43.1%	41.3%	69.3%	45.5%
2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00	55.6%	43.9%	30.4%	69.3%	45.5%
2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00	55.6%	43.9%	30.4%	69.3%	45.5%
2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00	55.6%	43.9%	30.4%	69.3%	45.5%
2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00	55.6%	43.9%	30.4%	69.3%	45.5%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00	51.9%	43.9%	30.4%	64.0%	45.5%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	51.9%	43.9%	30.4%	64.0%	45.5%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	51.9%	43.9%	30.4%	69.4%	45.5%
2026-09-15T16:19:08+00:00	51.9%	43.9%	30.4%	69.4%	45.5%
2026-09-15T17:04:22+00:00	51.9%	43.9%	21.3%	69.4%	45.5%
2026-09-15T17:49:29+00:00	51.9%	43.9%	21.3%	69.4%	45.5%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	51.9%	43.9%	21.3%	69.4%	45.5%
2026-09-15T19:19:43+00:00	51.9%	43.9%	21.3%	69.4%	45.5%
2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:00	53.8%	43.9%	21.3%	69.4%	40.0%
2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00	53.8%	43.9%	21.3%	69.4%	40.0%
2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00	53.8%	43.9%	21.3%	69.4%	40.0%
2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00	53.8%	43.9%	21.3%	69.4%	40.0%
2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00	53.8%	45.4%	22.1%	58.6%	40.0%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	53.8%	45.4%	22.1%	58.6%	40.0%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	53.8%	45.4%	22.1%	58.6%	40.0%
2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00	53.8%	45.4%	22.1%	58.6%	40.0%
2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00	54.7%	45.4%	22.1%	58.6%	40.0%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00	54.7%	45.4%	22.1%	58.6%	40.0%
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	54.7%	45.4%	22.1%	58.6%	40.0%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	54.7%	45.4%	22.1%	58.6%	40.0%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	54.7%	45.4%	37.7%	58.6%	40.0%
2026-09-16T05:51:45+00:00	54.7%	45.4%	37.7%	58.6%	40.0%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	54.7%	45.4%	37.7%	58.6%	40.0%
2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00	58.6%	45.4%	37.7%	72.9%	27.8%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	58.6%	45.4%	37.7%	72.9%	27.8%
2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00	58.6%	45.4%	37.7%	72.9%	27.8%
2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00	58.6%	45.4%	37.7%	72.9%	27.8%
2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00	58.6%	45.4%	37.7%	72.9%	27.8%
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00	58.6%	47.1%	34.0%	72.9%	27.8%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	58.6%	47.1%	34.0%	72.9%	27.8%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	58.6%	47.1%	34.0%	72.9%	27.8%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00	56.7%	47.1%	34.0%	72.9%	27.8%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00	56.7%	47.1%	34.0%	72.9%	27.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	73%	99.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	97.9°F	2.3°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	98.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	97.3°F	2.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	96.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	95.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗