KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 16 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

57%

47%

34%

28%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 50.3¢Risks 50.30u

ICONNO 49.7¢Risks 49.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +49.70u · ICON −49.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	42.4%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	53.1%	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	30.6%	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	6.4%	44.6%	—	—	11.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	24.6%	6.9%	9.0%	24.1%	14.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	14.0%	63.6%	11.3%	—	21.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	19.5%	77.2%	9.3%	—	35.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	46.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	27.4%	67.7%	5.1%	—	30.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	4.1%	58.1%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	43.4%	65.5%	3.0%	—	33.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	13.7%	65.8%	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	43.0%	6.2%	—	43.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	4.8%	66.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	1.7%	—	36.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	4.0%	76.2%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	14.2%	66.1%	6.2%	—	47.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	42.0%	61.8%	—	—	39.1%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	23.5%	58.2%	2.6%	3.5%	51.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	43.7%	69.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	51.1%	65.9%	2.6%	3.5%	47.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	51.1%	70.4%	0.0%	—	40.0%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	45.4%	77.6%	2.1%	—	37.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	39.3%	75.6%	1.4%	—	35.9%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	41.3%	70.2%	5.2%	38.9%	50.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	33.7%	62.7%	2.6%	—	38.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	39.4%	65.7%	2.8%	36.8%	36.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	44.4%	63.7%	3.5%	—	32.5%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	44.2%	41.4%	10.2%	30.5%	33.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	35.2%	48.5%	5.6%	—	12.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	29.0%	54.7%	10.2%	27.6%	8.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	37.0%	63.0%	14.1%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	73%	99.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	97.9°F	2.3°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	98.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	97.3°F	2.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	96.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	95.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗