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KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 11 · 10:44 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
>99%
AIFS
98%
WN2
96%
EPS
93%
ICON
82%
Consensus
97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 90.8¢Risks 45.40u
VS
ICONNO 9.2¢Risks 4.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +4.60u · ICON −4.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00IFS HRES: 99.3% · 2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00IFS HRES: 99.3% · 2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00IFS HRES: 99.3% · 2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 99.3% · 2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00IFS HRES: 99.3% · 2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:0009-11 07:4409-11 09:1409-11 10:44
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:0098.4%93.1%95.9%99.3%82.3%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:0098.4%93.1%95.9%99.3%82.3%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:0098.4%93.1%95.9%99.3%82.3%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:0098.4%93.1%95.9%99.3%82.3%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:0098.4%93.1%95.9%99.3%82.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES>99%97.5°F6.1°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
AIFS Single98%94.3°F5.5°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 296%91.3°F5.1°F2026-09-10 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble93%90.0°F5.1°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
ICON82%91.6°F9.8°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
National Blend55%83.4°F7.8°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 83°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗