KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 11 · 10:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

96%

93%

82%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 90.8¢Risks 45.40u

ICONNO 9.2¢Risks 4.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +4.60u · ICON −4.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	89.2%	—	—	85.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	37.6%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	55.8%	—	96.9%	74.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	80.6%	71.8%	—	—	91.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	80.6%	94.9%	85.9%	—	97.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	95.4%	89.4%	—	97.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	99.6%	87.8%	—	99.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	92.5%	98.0%	—	99.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	95.9%	—	99.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	100.0%	—	—	99.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	100.0%	99.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.2%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	100.0%	99.1%	—	100.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.5%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	98.8%	—	100.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	79.4%	—	100.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	97.5°F	6.1°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	94.3°F	5.5°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	91.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	90.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	82%	91.6°F	9.8°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	83.4°F	7.8°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 83°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗