KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 15 · 19:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

95%

92%

79%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.6¢Risks 89.60u

WN2NO 10.4¢Risks 10.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +10.40u · WN2 −10.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T19:19:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	69.4%	38.3%	48.4%	83.6%	50.4%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	69.4%	38.3%	48.4%	83.6%	50.4%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	69.4%	38.3%	48.4%	83.6%	50.4%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	69.4%	38.3%	48.4%	83.6%	50.4%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	69.4%	38.3%	48.4%	83.6%	50.4%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	69.4%	64.1%	57.5%	83.6%	50.4%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	69.4%	64.1%	57.5%	83.6%	50.4%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	69.4%	64.1%	57.5%	83.6%	50.4%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	78.8%	64.1%	57.5%	83.6%	50.4%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	78.7%	67.8%	57.5%	83.5%	50.4%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	78.7%	63.7%	57.5%	83.5%	50.4%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	78.7%	63.7%	57.5%	83.5%	50.4%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	78.7%	63.7%	57.5%	83.5%	49.6%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	78.7%	63.7%	64.0%	83.5%	49.6%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	78.7%	63.7%	64.0%	83.5%	49.6%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	78.7%	63.7%	64.0%	83.5%	49.6%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	64.8%	63.7%	64.0%	76.8%	75.9%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	64.8%	63.7%	64.0%	76.8%	75.9%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	64.8%	63.7%	64.0%	76.8%	75.9%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	64.8%	63.7%	64.0%	76.8%	75.9%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	64.8%	63.7%	64.0%	76.8%	75.9%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	64.8%	64.1%	65.5%	76.8%	75.9%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	64.8%	64.1%	65.5%	76.8%	75.9%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	64.8%	64.1%	65.5%	76.8%	75.9%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	63.5%	64.1%	65.5%	76.8%	75.9%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	63.5%	64.1%	65.5%	76.8%	75.9%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	90.7%	99.3%	68.6%	91.9%	92.4%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	90.7%	99.3%	68.6%	91.9%	92.4%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	90.7%	99.3%	68.6%	91.9%	92.4%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	90.7%	99.3%	68.6%	91.9%	92.4%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	91.7%	99.3%	68.6%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	91.7%	99.3%	68.6%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	91.7%	99.3%	68.6%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	91.7%	99.3%	68.6%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	91.7%	99.2%	70.3%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	91.7%	99.2%	70.3%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	91.7%	99.2%	70.3%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	91.7%	99.2%	70.3%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	92.0%	99.2%	70.3%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	92.0%	99.2%	70.3%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	92.0%	99.2%	70.3%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	92.0%	99.2%	70.3%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	92.0%	99.2%	80.2%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	92.0%	99.2%	80.2%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	92.0%	99.2%	80.2%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	92.0%	99.2%	80.2%	90.3%	92.4%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	94.9%	99.2%	80.2%	95.7%	88.0%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	94.9%	99.2%	80.2%	95.7%	88.0%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	94.9%	99.2%	80.2%	95.7%	88.0%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	94.9%	99.2%	80.2%	95.7%	88.0%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	94.9%	99.5%	80.2%	95.7%	88.0%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	94.9%	99.5%	80.2%	95.7%	88.0%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	94.9%	99.5%	80.2%	95.7%	88.0%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	94.9%	99.5%	80.2%	95.7%	88.0%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	94.2%	99.5%	80.1%	95.7%	87.7%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	94.2%	99.5%	80.1%	95.7%	87.7%
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	80.1%	95.7%	87.7%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	80.1%	95.7%	87.7%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	81.5%	95.7%	87.7%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	81.5%	95.7%	87.7%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	81.5%	95.7%	87.7%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	81.5%	95.7%	87.7%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	93.9%	99.6%	81.5%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	93.9%	99.6%	81.5%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	93.9%	99.6%	81.5%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	93.9%	99.6%	81.5%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	93.9%	99.6%	77.9%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	93.9%	99.6%	77.9%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	93.9%	99.6%	77.9%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	93.9%	99.6%	77.9%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	77.9%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	77.9%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	77.9%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	77.9%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	88.6%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	88.6%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	88.6%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	94.2%	99.6%	88.6%	95.7%	92.7%
2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00	95.7%	99.6%	88.6%	98.1%	92.1%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	95.7%	99.6%	88.6%	98.1%	92.1%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	95.7%	99.6%	88.6%	98.1%	92.1%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	95.7%	99.6%	88.6%	98.1%	92.1%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00	94.8%	99.8%	86.3%	92.6%	92.1%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	94.8%	99.8%	86.3%	92.6%	92.1%
2026-09-15T17:04:22+00:00	94.8%	99.8%	79.4%	98.1%	92.1%
2026-09-15T17:49:29+00:00	94.8%	99.8%	79.4%	98.1%	92.1%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	94.8%	99.8%	79.4%	98.1%	92.1%
2026-09-15T19:19:43+00:00	94.8%	99.8%	79.4%	98.1%	92.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	97.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	100.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	97%	96.8°F	2.9°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	95%	98.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	98.7°F	4.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	92%	97.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	94.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗