KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 15 · 19:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

95%

92%

79%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.6¢Risks 89.60u

WN2NO 10.4¢Risks 10.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +10.40u · WN2 −10.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	46.5%	—	—	39.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	4.2%	—	—	11.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	9.3%	—	65.2%	21.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	25.4%	17.1%	—	—	44.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	23.5%	52.1%	30.5%	—	61.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	51.5%	34.3%	—	60.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	82.1%	28.9%	—	76.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	35.9%	60.3%	—	83.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	44.2%	—	82.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	92.8%	—	—	82.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	92.3%	63.7%	—	92.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.5%	64.9%	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	95.9%	60.9%	—	90.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	66.5%	96.2%	—	—	92.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.3%	89.3%	98.8%	51.9%	—	94.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	96.6%	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	95.3%	99.0%	50.0%	—	91.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	94.2%	98.2%	—	—	92.0%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	96.7%	98.0%	67.9%	91.9%	96.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	97.6%	97.9%	4.2%	—	95.2%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	97.8%	99.3%	66.9%	90.6%	96.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	99.1%	99.5%	75.6%	—	95.7%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	97.9%	99.6%	81.8%	—	97.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.1%	98.2%	99.5%	69.8%	—	92.3%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	98.0%	99.8%	79.0%	96.8%	92.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	99.1%	99.8%	90.2%	—	95.7%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	99.5%	99.2%	90.5%	98.2%	97.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	99.3%	99.4%	92.5%	—	88.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	99.2%	99.9%	94.3%	98.4%	93.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	99.8%	99.9%	98.1%	—	98.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	97.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	100.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	97%	96.8°F	2.9°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	95%	98.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	98.7°F	4.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	92%	97.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	94.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗