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KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
85%
ICON
82%
AIFS
79%
HRES
78%
WN2
42%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 63.7¢Risks 63.75u
VS
WN2NO 36.3¢Risks 36.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.25u · WN2 −36.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.2% · 2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.2% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.2% · 2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.2% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.2% · 2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.2% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.2% · 2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.2% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.2% · 2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.2% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.2% · 2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.2% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.2% · 2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.2% · 2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.2% · 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.4% · 2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.4% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.4% · 2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.4% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.4% · 2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.4% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.4% · 2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.4% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00IFS HRES: 81.3% · 2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00IFS HRES: 81.3% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00IFS HRES: 81.3% · 2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00IFS HRES: 81.3% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:0009-13 16:5409-13 22:1009-14 03:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:0076.5%86.2%40.4%81.3%82.0%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:0076.5%86.2%40.4%81.3%82.0%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:0076.5%86.2%40.4%81.3%82.0%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:0076.5%86.2%40.4%81.3%82.0%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:0078.3%86.2%40.4%78.4%82.0%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:0078.3%86.2%40.4%78.4%82.0%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:0078.3%86.2%40.4%78.4%82.0%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:0078.3%86.2%40.4%78.4%82.0%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:0078.3%85.2%42.3%78.4%82.0%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:0078.3%85.2%42.3%78.5%82.0%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:0078.3%85.2%42.3%78.5%82.0%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:0078.3%85.2%42.3%78.5%82.0%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:0078.9%85.2%42.3%78.5%82.0%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:0078.9%85.2%42.3%78.5%82.0%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:0078.9%85.2%42.3%78.5%82.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble85%96.8°F2.2°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending
ICON82%99.8°F5.8°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending
AIFS Single79%98.5°F5.0°F2026-09-13 18:00Pending
IFS HRES78%99.1°F5.8°F2026-09-13 12:00Pending
NWS forecast54%95.0°F5.1°F2026-09-13 16:00Pending
WeatherNext 242%93.7°F4.1°F2026-09-13 12:00Pending
National Blend42%93.6°F4.4°F2026-09-13 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 13 · 16:54 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗