KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

82%

79%

78%

42%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.7¢Risks 63.75u

WN2NO 36.3¢Risks 36.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.25u · WN2 −36.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	29.8%	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	3.5%	—	46.1%	9.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	12.1%	7.2%	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	39.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	10.5%	31.7%	14.9%	—	40.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	30.4%	17.0%	—	39.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	63.5%	12.9%	—	56.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	16.9%	36.7%	—	64.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	21.9%	—	61.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	—	79.2%	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	77.9%	37.9%	—	77.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	38.5%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	85.1%	33.9%	—	72.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	38.8%	85.7%	—	—	76.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	69.6%	93.5%	24.7%	—	80.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	86.0%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	81.7%	93.9%	21.9%	—	73.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	78.0%	90.4%	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	84.5%	89.1%	36.1%	71.8%	83.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	87.1%	88.2%	0.5%	—	79.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	87.3%	94.3%	33.1%	66.9%	82.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	92.6%	95.5%	41.6%	—	79.2%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	86.3%	95.4%	48.8%	—	82.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	87.2%	94.4%	32.5%	—	67.5%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	85.1%	97.0%	42.0%	80.0%	65.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	90.8%	96.8%	59.7%	—	74.7%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	93.2%	90.5%	58.6%	84.6%	82.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	90.8%	91.4%	61.9%	—	51.5%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	89.0%	96.9%	65.4%	82.9%	63.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	95.5%	96.9%	79.7%	—	81.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	96.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	82%	99.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	98.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	99.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	95.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	93.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	93.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 13 · 16:54 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗