KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 18 · 06:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

60%

59%

36%

21%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.6¢Risks 46.65u

WN2NO 53.4¢Risks 53.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.35u · WN2 −53.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	16.6%	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	1.1%	—	27.8%	3.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	4.7%	2.5%	—	—	12.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	3.8%	15.8%	5.8%	—	22.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	14.4%	6.6%	—	20.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	40.9%	4.4%	—	33.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	5.9%	17.4%	—	41.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	8.0%	—	36.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	56.8%	—	—	36.6%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	54.4%	16.7%	—	53.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	16.6%	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	63.6%	13.4%	—	46.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	15.9%	63.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	41.3%	78.2%	7.9%	—	54.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	62.8%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	55.1%	78.1%	6.1%	—	43.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	48.9%	69.3%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	57.6%	65.9%	11.9%	40.3%	56.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	61.1%	63.3%	0.0%	—	48.9%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	60.4%	75.8%	9.4%	33.1%	52.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	70.7%	78.4%	13.2%	—	46.4%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	56.2%	77.3%	16.6%	—	50.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	56.4%	73.1%	7.7%	—	30.2%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	51.3%	80.9%	11.3%	43.3%	27.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	61.0%	78.9%	21.1%	—	35.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	65.5%	58.6%	19.1%	47.1%	44.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	57.5%	59.0%	20.2%	—	13.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	51.6%	75.0%	21.4%	40.6%	20.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	67.6%	73.3%	33.9%	—	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	99.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	98.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	98.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-18 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	98.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	98.1°F	2.7°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	96.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	94.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 14 · 15:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗