KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 16 · 18:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

98%

97%

95%

82%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 90.7¢Risks 45.35u

WN2NO 9.3¢Risks 4.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.65u · WN2 −4.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	80.3%	50.0%	57.8%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	80.3%	50.0%	57.8%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	80.3%	50.0%	57.8%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	80.3%	50.0%	57.8%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	80.3%	50.0%	57.8%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	80.3%	62.5%	58.3%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	80.3%	62.5%	58.3%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	80.3%	62.5%	58.3%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	86.1%	62.5%	58.3%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	86.1%	62.5%	58.3%	63.9%	71.9%
2026-09-12T15:20:10+00:00	86.1%	65.9%	58.3%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	86.1%	65.9%	58.3%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	86.1%	65.9%	58.3%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	86.1%	65.9%	60.0%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	86.1%	65.9%	60.0%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	86.1%	65.9%	60.0%	66.4%	71.9%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	82.7%	65.9%	60.0%	66.4%	88.1%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	82.7%	65.9%	60.0%	66.4%	88.1%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	82.7%	65.9%	60.0%	66.4%	88.1%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	82.7%	65.9%	60.0%	66.4%	88.1%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	82.7%	65.9%	60.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	82.6%	65.9%	67.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	82.6%	65.9%	67.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	82.6%	65.9%	67.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	88.7%	65.9%	67.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	88.7%	65.9%	67.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	88.7%	65.9%	67.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	88.7%	65.9%	67.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	88.7%	65.9%	67.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	88.7%	65.9%	67.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	88.7%	65.9%	67.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	88.7%	65.9%	67.0%	91.1%	88.1%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	92.5%	65.9%	67.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	92.5%	65.9%	67.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	92.5%	65.9%	67.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	92.5%	65.9%	67.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	92.5%	91.3%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	92.5%	91.3%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	92.5%	91.3%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	92.5%	91.3%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	93.5%	91.3%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	93.5%	91.3%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	93.5%	91.8%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	93.5%	91.8%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	93.5%	91.8%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	93.5%	91.8%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	93.5%	91.8%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	93.5%	91.8%	72.0%	91.7%	80.5%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	92.5%	91.8%	72.0%	93.9%	80.5%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	92.5%	91.8%	72.0%	93.9%	80.5%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	92.5%	91.8%	72.0%	93.9%	80.5%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	92.5%	91.8%	72.0%	93.9%	80.5%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	92.5%	91.8%	73.5%	93.9%	80.5%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	92.5%	91.8%	73.5%	94.0%	80.5%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	92.5%	91.8%	73.5%	94.0%	80.5%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	92.5%	91.8%	73.5%	94.0%	80.5%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	95.0%	91.8%	73.5%	94.0%	80.5%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	95.0%	91.8%	73.5%	94.0%	80.5%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	95.0%	91.8%	73.5%	94.0%	80.5%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	95.0%	91.8%	73.5%	94.0%	80.5%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	95.0%	91.8%	82.7%	94.0%	80.5%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	95.0%	91.8%	82.7%	94.0%	80.5%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	95.0%	91.8%	82.7%	94.0%	80.5%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	95.0%	91.8%	82.7%	94.0%	80.5%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	96.7%	91.8%	82.7%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	96.7%	91.8%	82.7%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	96.7%	91.8%	82.7%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	96.7%	91.8%	82.7%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	96.7%	99.7%	82.7%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	96.7%	99.7%	82.7%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	96.7%	99.7%	82.7%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	96.7%	99.7%	82.7%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	96.8%	99.7%	82.6%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	96.8%	99.7%	82.6%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	96.8%	99.8%	82.6%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	96.8%	99.8%	82.6%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	96.8%	99.8%	84.5%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	96.8%	99.8%	84.5%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	96.8%	99.8%	84.5%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	96.8%	99.8%	84.5%	94.8%	76.6%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	96.6%	99.8%	84.5%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	96.6%	99.8%	84.5%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	96.6%	99.8%	84.5%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	96.6%	99.8%	84.5%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	96.6%	99.7%	79.4%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	96.6%	99.7%	79.4%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	96.6%	99.7%	79.4%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	96.6%	99.7%	79.4%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	96.9%	99.7%	79.4%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	96.9%	99.7%	79.4%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	96.9%	99.7%	79.4%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	96.9%	99.7%	79.4%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	96.9%	99.7%	87.7%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	96.9%	99.7%	87.7%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	96.9%	99.7%	87.7%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	96.9%	99.7%	87.7%	84.8%	72.7%
2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00	97.7%	99.7%	87.7%	98.1%	90.5%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	97.7%	99.7%	87.7%	98.1%	90.5%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	97.7%	99.7%	87.7%	98.1%	90.5%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	97.7%	99.7%	87.7%	98.1%	90.5%
2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00	97.7%	99.5%	88.6%	98.1%	90.5%
2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00	97.7%	99.5%	88.6%	98.1%	90.5%
2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00	97.7%	99.5%	88.6%	98.1%	90.5%
2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00	97.7%	99.5%	88.6%	98.1%	90.5%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00	97.2%	99.5%	88.6%	93.3%	90.4%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	97.2%	99.5%	88.6%	93.3%	90.4%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	97.2%	99.4%	88.6%	98.1%	90.4%
2026-09-15T16:19:08+00:00	97.2%	99.4%	88.6%	98.1%	90.4%
2026-09-15T17:04:22+00:00	97.2%	99.4%	81.5%	98.1%	90.4%
2026-09-15T17:49:29+00:00	97.2%	99.4%	81.5%	98.1%	90.4%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	97.2%	99.4%	81.5%	98.1%	90.4%
2026-09-15T19:19:43+00:00	97.2%	99.4%	81.5%	98.1%	90.4%
2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	81.5%	98.1%	93.3%
2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	81.5%	98.1%	93.3%
2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	81.5%	98.1%	93.3%
2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	81.5%	98.1%	93.3%
2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	83.5%	77.9%	93.3%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	83.5%	77.9%	93.3%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	83.5%	77.9%	93.3%
2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	83.5%	77.9%	93.3%
2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	83.5%	77.9%	93.3%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	83.5%	77.9%	93.3%
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	83.5%	77.9%	93.3%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	96.6%	99.4%	83.5%	77.9%	93.3%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	98.0%	99.0%	82.4%	96.6%	94.7%
2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00	98.0%	99.0%	82.4%	96.6%	94.7%
2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00	98.0%	99.0%	82.4%	96.6%	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	97.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	99%	96.8°F	2.8°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	99.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	100.1°F	5.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	95%	96.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	92%	98.0°F	5.3°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	93.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 91°F+ · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗