KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 16 · 18:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

98%

97%

95%

82%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 90.7¢Risks 45.35u

WN2NO 9.3¢Risks 4.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.65u · WN2 −4.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	25.2%	—	69.8%	11.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	72.7%	—	—	52.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	79.1%	27.5%	—	67.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	76.8%	70.9%	—	81.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	57.6%	—	84.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	85.9%	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	84.6%	74.5%	—	91.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	2.5%	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	65.5%	45.8%	—	89.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	15.7%	84.8%	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	89.1%	85.9%	83.3%	70.9%	—	95.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	94.3%	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	91.0%	99.1%	72.6%	—	90.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	94.1%	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	82.9%	95.8%	84.1%	44.2%	95.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	92.4%	99.0%	—	—	96.6%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	93.6%	99.1%	84.3%	—	96.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	95.3%	99.3%	—	—	97.5%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	95.0%	93.4%	85.1%	—	96.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	95.0%	99.9%	10.7%	—	94.3%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	87.9%	99.9%	78.5%	94.6%	94.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	98.6%	100.0%	91.3%	—	96.7%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	93.3%	99.1%	99.9%	93.7%	95.1%	98.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	98.4%	99.9%	95.1%	—	94.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	97.2%	99.9%	96.8%	95.4%	94.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	99.6%	99.9%	97.7%	—	97.3%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	99.8%	100.0%	97.9%	99.3%	99.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	99.9%	99.9%	99.0%	—	98.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.9%	100.0%	93.9%	99.0%	99.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	97.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	99%	96.8°F	2.8°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	99.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	100.1°F	5.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	95%	96.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	92%	98.0°F	5.3°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	93.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 91°F+ · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗