KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Sep 15 · 02:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

86%

63%

47%

44%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.6¢Risks 66.65u

WN2NO 33.4¢Risks 33.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.35u · WN2 −33.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	81.5%	60.9%	39.4%	82.9%	60.5%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	81.5%	60.9%	51.8%	82.9%	60.5%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	81.5%	60.9%	51.8%	82.9%	60.5%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	81.5%	60.9%	51.8%	82.9%	60.5%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	81.5%	60.9%	51.8%	82.9%	60.5%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	85.1%	60.9%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	85.1%	60.9%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	85.1%	60.9%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	85.1%	60.9%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	85.1%	88.5%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	85.1%	88.5%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	85.1%	88.5%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	85.1%	88.5%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	85.2%	88.5%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	85.2%	88.5%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	85.2%	89.3%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	85.2%	89.3%	51.8%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	85.2%	89.3%	51.9%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	85.2%	89.3%	51.9%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	85.2%	89.3%	51.9%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	85.2%	89.3%	51.9%	82.7%	51.4%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	84.7%	89.3%	51.9%	63.4%	46.6%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	84.7%	89.3%	51.9%	63.4%	46.6%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	84.7%	89.3%	51.9%	63.4%	46.6%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	84.7%	89.3%	51.9%	63.4%	46.6%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	84.7%	89.1%	44.2%	63.4%	46.6%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	84.7%	89.1%	44.2%	63.4%	46.6%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	84.7%	89.1%	44.2%	63.4%	46.6%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	84.7%	89.1%	44.2%	63.4%	46.6%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	85.6%	89.1%	44.2%	63.4%	46.6%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	85.6%	89.1%	44.2%	63.4%	46.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	97.7°F	2.6°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	99.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	96.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	95.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	94.6°F	3.3°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	47%	94.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	93.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗