KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Sep 15 · 02:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

86%

63%

47%

44%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.6¢Risks 66.65u

WN2NO 33.4¢Risks 33.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.35u · WN2 −33.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	10.1%	—	46.4%	3.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	48.0%	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	6.2%	—	—	27.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	54.2%	9.6%	—	40.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	50.0%	42.7%	—	56.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	—	28.3%	—	59.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	61.5%	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	58.7%	44.4%	—	72.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	0.3%	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	33.0%	17.3%	—	65.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	3.1%	56.8%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.7%	57.8%	53.5%	37.1%	—	77.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	75.0%	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	66.1%	92.4%	37.3%	—	65.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	73.2%	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	49.0%	77.5%	51.0%	13.1%	76.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	66.5%	90.8%	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	68.8%	90.6%	49.0%	—	78.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	73.0%	92.0%	—	—	81.7%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	70.8%	65.9%	47.8%	—	74.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	69.5%	96.7%	0.9%	—	67.5%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	50.0%	97.1%	35.2%	66.9%	65.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	84.0%	98.1%	56.0%	—	73.7%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	86.3%	97.5%	61.1%	65.8%	80.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	80.0%	96.0%	63.9%	—	60.2%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	71.6%	96.5%	69.3%	63.2%	60.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	88.9%	96.3%	72.4%	—	70.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	92.7%	96.8%	72.0%	84.6%	85.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	94.8%	95.6%	78.7%	—	77.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	93.9%	98.2%	48.4%	77.4%	79.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	95.5%	96.6%	77.2%	—	94.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	97.7°F	2.6°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	99.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	96.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	95.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	94.6°F	3.3°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	47%	94.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	93.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗