KBNA / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 15 · 10:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

97%

92%

85%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 92.2¢Risks 46.12u

WN2NO 7.8¢Risks 3.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +3.88u · WN2 −3.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	91.5%	58.8%	56.3%	76.8%	60.8%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	91.5%	58.8%	56.3%	76.8%	60.8%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	91.5%	58.8%	56.3%	76.8%	60.8%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	91.5%	58.8%	56.3%	76.8%	60.8%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	91.5%	86.8%	72.9%	76.8%	60.8%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	91.5%	86.8%	72.9%	76.8%	60.8%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	91.5%	86.8%	72.9%	76.8%	60.8%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	91.5%	86.8%	72.9%	76.8%	60.8%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	92.0%	86.8%	72.9%	76.7%	60.8%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	92.0%	86.8%	72.9%	76.7%	60.8%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	92.0%	87.2%	72.9%	76.7%	60.8%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	92.0%	87.2%	72.9%	76.7%	60.8%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	92.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.7%	60.8%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	92.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.7%	60.8%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	92.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.7%	60.8%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	92.0%	87.2%	71.5%	76.7%	60.8%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	90.0%	87.2%	71.5%	97.3%	60.8%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	90.0%	87.2%	71.5%	97.3%	60.8%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	90.0%	87.2%	71.5%	97.3%	60.8%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	90.0%	87.2%	71.5%	97.3%	60.8%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	90.0%	87.2%	74.3%	97.3%	60.8%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	90.0%	87.2%	74.3%	97.3%	60.9%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	90.0%	87.2%	74.3%	97.3%	60.9%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	90.0%	87.2%	74.3%	97.3%	60.9%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	94.6%	87.2%	74.3%	97.3%	60.9%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	94.6%	87.2%	74.3%	97.3%	60.9%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	94.6%	87.2%	74.3%	97.3%	60.9%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	94.6%	87.2%	74.3%	97.3%	60.9%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	94.6%	87.2%	80.5%	97.3%	60.9%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	94.6%	87.2%	80.5%	97.3%	60.9%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	94.6%	87.2%	80.5%	97.3%	60.9%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	94.6%	87.2%	80.5%	97.3%	60.9%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	94.4%	87.2%	80.5%	87.7%	96.1%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	94.4%	87.2%	80.5%	87.7%	96.1%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	94.4%	87.2%	80.5%	87.7%	96.1%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	94.4%	87.2%	80.5%	87.7%	96.1%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	94.4%	99.7%	80.5%	87.7%	96.1%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	94.4%	99.7%	80.5%	87.7%	96.1%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	94.4%	99.7%	80.5%	87.7%	96.1%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	94.4%	99.7%	80.5%	87.7%	96.1%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	80.5%	87.7%	96.0%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	80.5%	87.7%	96.0%
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	80.5%	87.7%	96.0%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	80.5%	87.7%	96.0%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	83.2%	87.7%	96.0%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	83.2%	87.7%	96.0%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	83.2%	87.7%	96.0%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	83.2%	87.7%	96.0%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	89.5%	99.7%	83.2%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	89.5%	99.7%	83.2%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	89.5%	99.7%	83.2%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	89.5%	99.7%	83.2%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	89.5%	99.6%	77.0%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	89.5%	99.6%	77.0%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	89.5%	99.6%	77.0%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	89.5%	99.6%	77.0%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	93.5%	99.7%	77.0%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	93.5%	99.7%	77.0%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	93.5%	99.7%	77.0%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	93.5%	99.7%	77.0%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	93.5%	99.7%	84.8%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	93.5%	99.7%	84.8%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	93.5%	99.7%	84.8%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	93.5%	99.7%	84.8%	88.9%	87.2%
2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00	96.6%	99.7%	84.8%	98.7%	91.9%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	96.6%	99.7%	84.8%	98.7%	91.9%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	96.6%	99.7%	84.8%	98.7%	91.9%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	96.6%	99.7%	84.8%	98.7%	91.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	96.9°F	2.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	99%	102.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	98.6°F	5.0°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	92%	97.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	94.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	86%	95.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	94.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗