KBNA / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 15 · 10:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

97%

92%

85%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 92.2¢Risks 46.12u

WN2NO 7.8¢Risks 3.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +3.88u · WN2 −3.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	28.9%	11.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	24.7%	—	—	30.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	28.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	46.8%	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	12.8%	—	—	70.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	45.8%	—	86.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	61.6%	83.5%	—	89.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	68.4%	—	86.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	73.2%	84.1%	76.4%	—	96.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	56.5%	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	94.9%	83.8%	83.2%	—	96.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	78.0%	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	87.4%	91.7%	85.4%	—	98.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.5%	92.8%	95.2%	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	93.7%	88.5%	84.5%	—	98.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	94.4%	99.1%	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	99.3%	94.9%	88.4%	—	98.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	99.4%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	97.2%	98.4%	89.7%	45.9%	96.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	99.4%	94.8%	—	—	98.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	99.7%	97.9%	94.4%	39.2%	98.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	81.7%	99.4%	94.3%	16.1%	—	97.3%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	99.5%	97.1%	96.5%	91.0%	97.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	99.7%	99.3%	90.8%	—	97.1%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	87.6%	99.8%	97.2%	94.5%	97.7%	98.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	99.5%	99.8%	97.2%	—	97.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	99.7%	99.5%	97.2%	98.1%	96.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	99.8%	98.8%	95.3%	—	98.7%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	99.8%	99.6%	94.5%	98.8%	98.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	99.9%	99.5%	96.3%	—	97.3%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	99.6%	99.4%	94.8%	98.2%	91.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	100.0%	100.0%	98.6%	—	99.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	96.9°F	2.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	99%	102.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	98.6°F	5.0°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	92%	97.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	94.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	86%	95.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	94.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗