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KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 16 · 02:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
HRES
98%
ICON
96%
AIFS
94%
WN2
88%
Consensus
98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 93.9¢Risks 46.95u
VS
WN2NO 6.1¢Risks 3.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +3.05u · WN2 −3.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00AIFS Single: 94.4% · 2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00AIFS Single: 94.4% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00IFS HRES: 98.9% · 2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:00IFS HRES: 98.9% · 2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00IFS HRES: 98.9% · 2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00IFS HRES: 98.9% · 2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:0009-15 20:0409-15 23:5009-16 02:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:0097.5%100.0%83.8%98.9%95.6%
2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:0097.5%100.0%83.8%98.9%95.6%
2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:0097.5%100.0%83.8%98.9%95.6%
2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:0097.5%100.0%83.8%98.9%95.6%
2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:0097.5%100.0%87.8%97.6%95.6%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:0097.5%100.0%87.8%97.6%95.6%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:0097.5%100.0%87.8%97.6%95.6%
2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:0097.5%100.0%87.8%97.6%95.6%
2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:0094.4%100.0%87.8%97.6%95.6%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:0094.4%100.0%87.8%97.6%95.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%97.9°F2.7°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES98%99.6°F6.6°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending
ICON96%98.1°F6.8°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single94%95.0°F5.3°F2026-09-15 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 288%91.7°F4.5°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending
NWS forecast53%87.0°F5.8°F2026-09-15 15:00Pending
National Blend50%86.5°F5.5°F2026-09-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 15 · 20:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗