KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 16 · 02:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

96%

94%

88%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 93.9¢Risks 46.95u

WN2NO 6.1¢Risks 3.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +3.05u · WN2 −3.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.1%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	1.7%	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	85.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	60.7%	—	—	72.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	70.2%	—	59.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	55.8%	76.3%	—	96.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	94.6%	95.9%	41.7%	—	97.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	81.6%	89.2%	80.0%	—	98.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	20.7%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	93.9%	93.7%	22.5%	—	98.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	88.9%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	98.4%	99.6%	49.1%	—	98.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	98.0%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	98.7%	98.2%	83.4%	—	98.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	99.2%	99.4%	—	—	98.9%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	98.7%	99.6%	58.7%	—	98.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	99.1%	99.8%	—	—	98.9%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	99.2%	99.8%	86.1%	—	98.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	99.0%	99.3%	—	—	97.7%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	99.1%	98.5%	93.0%	99.3%	99.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	99.5%	97.8%	21.4%	—	99.5%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	99.4%	99.7%	97.8%	98.8%	99.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	99.8%	99.8%	99.3%	—	99.3%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	99.9%	99.9%	99.2%	65.8%	99.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	100.0%	99.9%	99.2%	—	99.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	100.0%	99.7%	99.8%	99.2%	99.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	100.0%	99.5%	98.8%	—	99.8%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	99.7%	99.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	100.0%	99.6%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.6%	99.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	97.9°F	2.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	99.6°F	6.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	96%	98.1°F	6.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	95.0°F	5.3°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	91.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	87.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	50%	86.5°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 15 · 20:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗