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KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 15 · 15:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
HRES
98%
AIFS
95%
ICON
95%
WN2
70%
Consensus
97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 85.2¢Risks 85.20u
VS
WN2NO 14.8¢Risks 14.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.80u · WN2 −14.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 96.6% · 2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00AIFS Single: 96.6% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00AIFS Single: 96.6% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00AIFS Single: 96.6% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.1% · 2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.1% · 2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.1% · 2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.1% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.1% · 2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.1% · 2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.1% · 2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.1% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.1% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.1% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.5% · 2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.5% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.5% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.5% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.2% · 2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.2% · 2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00IFS HRES: 30.7% · 2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00IFS HRES: 30.7% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00IFS HRES: 30.7% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00IFS HRES: 30.7% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 93.3% · 2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00IFS HRES: 93.3% · 2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00ICON: 78.1% · 2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00ICON: 78.1% · 2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00ICON: 78.1% · 2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00ICON: 78.1% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00ICON: 78.1% · 2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00ICON: 78.1% · 2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00ICON: 94.8% · 2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00ICON: 94.8% · 2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00ICON: 94.8% · 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:0009-14 07:5609-15 08:0109-15 15:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:0096.6%73.5%75.5%30.7%63.2%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:0096.6%73.5%75.5%30.7%63.2%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:0096.6%73.5%75.5%30.7%63.2%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:0096.6%73.5%75.5%30.7%63.2%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:0076.4%99.1%54.2%81.6%78.1%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:0076.4%99.1%54.2%81.6%78.1%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:0076.4%99.1%64.7%81.6%78.1%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:0076.4%99.1%64.7%81.6%78.1%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:0076.4%99.1%64.7%81.6%78.1%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:0076.4%99.1%64.7%81.6%78.1%
2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:0090.5%99.1%64.7%97.6%94.6%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:0090.5%99.1%64.7%97.6%94.6%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:0090.5%99.1%64.7%97.6%94.6%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:0090.5%99.1%64.7%97.6%94.6%
2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:0090.5%100.0%70.4%97.6%94.6%
2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:0090.5%100.0%70.4%97.6%94.6%
2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:0090.5%100.0%70.4%97.6%94.6%
2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:0090.5%100.0%70.4%97.6%94.6%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:0095.0%100.0%70.4%93.3%94.8%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:0095.0%100.0%70.4%93.3%94.8%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:0095.0%100.0%70.4%97.6%94.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%97.9°F2.7°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES98%101.6°F6.6°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single95%97.3°F5.3°F2026-09-15 06:00Pending
ICON95%99.5°F6.8°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 270%90.9°F4.5°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%89.0°F5.8°F2026-09-15 03:00Pending
National Blend41%86.5°F8.8°F2026-09-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗