KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

95%

95%

70%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.2¢Risks 85.20u

WN2NO 14.8¢Risks 14.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.80u · WN2 −14.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	47.3%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	57.0%	—	45.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	41.3%	63.6%	—	92.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	89.0%	91.3%	27.7%	—	93.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	69.2%	80.0%	67.0%	—	96.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.7%	11.0%	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	87.1%	86.7%	12.0%	—	96.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.6%	78.6%	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	95.7%	98.6%	32.2%	—	95.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	94.5%	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	96.1%	95.0%	69.5%	—	96.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	97.3%	97.9%	—	—	96.4%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	95.8%	98.3%	39.4%	—	95.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	96.8%	99.2%	—	—	96.2%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	97.2%	99.2%	71.5%	—	94.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	96.5%	97.4%	—	—	92.8%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	96.5%	94.7%	82.4%	97.2%	96.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	97.9%	92.5%	8.7%	—	97.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	97.3%	98.4%	92.4%	95.2%	96.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	98.8%	98.6%	96.7%	—	96.9%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	99.2%	99.5%	96.3%	41.3%	98.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	99.8%	99.2%	96.3%	—	98.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	99.7%	98.1%	98.7%	95.7%	98.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	99.7%	96.8%	94.2%	—	98.4%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	92.2%	99.9%	97.7%	99.6%	97.9%	98.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	100.0%	97.3%	98.9%	—	99.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	99.9%	99.0%	96.6%	99.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	97.9°F	2.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	101.6°F	6.6°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	97.3°F	5.3°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	95%	99.5°F	6.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	90.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	89.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	86.5°F	8.8°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗