KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Sep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

66%

58%

47%

24%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

WN2NO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.70u · WN2 −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T15:13:00+00:00	58.5%	70.9%	23.6%	53.9%	41.0%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	58.5%	70.9%	23.6%	53.9%	41.0%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	58.5%	70.9%	23.6%	53.9%	41.0%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	58.5%	70.9%	23.6%	53.9%	41.0%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	58.5%	70.9%	23.6%	53.9%	41.0%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	58.5%	70.9%	23.6%	53.9%	41.0%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	53.8%	70.9%	23.6%	71.1%	41.0%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	53.8%	70.9%	23.6%	71.1%	41.0%
2026-09-19T21:13:52+00:00	53.8%	70.9%	23.6%	71.1%	41.0%
2026-09-19T21:58:57+00:00	53.8%	70.9%	23.6%	71.1%	41.0%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	53.8%	70.9%	23.6%	71.1%	41.0%
2026-09-19T23:29:08+00:00	53.8%	72.1%	23.6%	71.1%	41.0%
2026-09-20T00:14:13+00:00	53.8%	72.1%	23.6%	71.1%	41.0%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	53.8%	72.1%	23.6%	71.1%	41.0%
2026-09-20T01:44:30+00:00	63.9%	72.1%	23.6%	71.1%	41.0%
2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00	63.9%	72.1%	23.6%	71.1%	41.0%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	63.4%	70.3%	23.7%	43.6%	42.2%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	63.4%	70.3%	23.7%	43.6%	42.2%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	63.4%	70.3%	23.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	63.4%	70.3%	23.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	63.4%	70.3%	23.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	63.4%	70.3%	23.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	61.5%	70.3%	23.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	61.5%	70.3%	23.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	61.5%	70.3%	23.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	61.5%	70.3%	23.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	61.5%	70.3%	23.7%	58.4%	46.6%
2026-09-20T23:35:04+00:00	61.5%	70.9%	23.7%	58.4%	46.6%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	61.5%	70.9%	23.7%	58.4%	46.6%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	61.5%	70.9%	23.7%	58.4%	46.6%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	66.1%	70.9%	23.7%	58.4%	46.6%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	66.1%	70.9%	23.7%	58.4%	46.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	97.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	97.0°F	3.2°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	97.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	96.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	96.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	47%	95.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	92.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE96
Opened Sep 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 96°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗