KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Sep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

66%

58%

47%

24%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

WN2NO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.70u · WN2 −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	10.5%	—	—	17.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	14.5%	—	8.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	6.6%	17.5%	—	55.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	45.4%	50.8%	2.7%	—	56.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	18.4%	28.8%	16.9%	—	64.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	0.4%	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	36.9%	36.1%	0.4%	—	63.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	23.9%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	57.0%	74.5%	2.3%	—	54.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	50.9%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	55.5%	50.9%	13.4%	—	58.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	60.3%	64.8%	—	—	55.7%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	51.0%	66.1%	2.4%	—	49.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	54.0%	74.3%	—	—	51.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	54.1%	72.4%	10.8%	—	42.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	47.9%	53.2%	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	45.6%	38.2%	16.2%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	52.2%	29.6%	0.0%	—	50.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	45.4%	53.5%	27.0%	35.2%	39.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	56.0%	53.6%	39.3%	—	40.5%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	58.7%	64.6%	34.2%	0.8%	51.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	75.2%	56.4%	31.4%	—	48.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	64.4%	39.4%	44.6%	26.2%	38.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	63.7%	27.6%	19.1%	—	37.7%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	69.5%	29.3%	52.9%	30.5%	31.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	80.8%	23.6%	35.2%	—	47.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	75.0%	60.9%	33.1%	17.1%	34.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	80.8%	71.9%	51.6%	—	81.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	97.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	97.0°F	3.2°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	97.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	96.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	96.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	47%	95.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	92.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE96
Opened Sep 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 96°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗