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KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 22 · 07:13 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
92%
WN2
62%
ICON
54%
AIFS
39%
HRES
29%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 60.7¢Risks 60.65u
VS
HRESNO 39.3¢Risks 39.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.35u · HRES −39.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.2% · 2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:00ICON: 53.5% · 2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00ICON: 53.5% · 2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:00ICON: 53.5% · 2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:00ICON: 53.5% · 2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:0009-21 15:2509-21 23:4109-22 07:13
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%71.2%6.0%
2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%71.2%6.0%
2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:0021.6%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:0021.6%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:0021.6%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:0021.6%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:0021.6%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:0021.6%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:0021.6%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:0021.6%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%28.8%30.6%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%28.8%53.5%
2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%28.8%53.5%
2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%28.8%53.5%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:0039.4%92.5%62.2%28.8%53.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble92%92.4°F4.1°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
National Blend68%88.0°F3.3°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 262%87.8°F4.2°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
NWS forecast59%87.0°F2.2°F2026-09-22 02:00Pending
ICON54%86.8°F3.4°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
AIFS Single39%85.4°F4.1°F2026-09-21 18:00Pending
IFS HRES29%84.4°F3.8°F2026-09-21 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 21 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗