KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 22 · 07:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

62%

54%

39%

29%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.7¢Risks 60.65u

HRESNO 39.3¢Risks 39.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.35u · HRES −39.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	53.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	56.3%	—	—	31.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	61.3%	—	—	62.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	85.9%	21.4%	—	73.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	13.6%	79.0%	75.1%	—	82.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	26.4%	83.1%	17.4%	—	73.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	69.2%	87.3%	45.2%	—	73.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	56.5%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	70.7%	90.3%	6.1%	—	60.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	17.8%	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	50.9%	77.9%	28.4%	—	42.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	36.8%	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	67.8%	78.4%	3.4%	—	39.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	76.9%	32.6%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	36.6%	81.7%	12.1%	—	52.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	17.0%	88.6%	—	—	41.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	3.8%	58.2%	6.1%	—	35.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	11.6%	60.5%	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	38.2%	73.6%	4.0%	—	43.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	35.7%	51.1%	0.6%	—	80.2%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	39.6%	48.8%	34.1%	52.3%	51.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	9.2%	4.8%	4.0%	—	45.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	10.0%	2.1%	17.4%	5.5%	40.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	37.3%	53.9%	18.2%	—	30.2%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	44.6%	51.3%	13.4%	66.9%	17.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	50.0%	56.9%	19.1%	—	58.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	82.8%	61.4%	22.2%	81.8%	61.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	44.0%	78.7%	13.6%	—	28.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	42.1%	54.7%	2.9%	57.9%	7.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	9.9%	0.0%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	92.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	87.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 02:00	Pending
ICON	54%	86.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	84.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 21 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗