KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Sep 22 · 07:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

34%

22%

16%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.4¢Risks 42.40u

HRESNO 57.6¢Risks 57.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.60u · HRES −57.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	37.6%	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	41.3%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	70.8%	9.3%	—	54.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	4.9%	60.1%	55.1%	—	64.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	11.4%	64.9%	6.5%	—	51.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	46.0%	70.5%	23.6%	—	51.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	32.6%	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	46.7%	74.9%	1.5%	—	36.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	5.9%	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	26.2%	54.4%	10.9%	—	19.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	15.5%	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	40.9%	53.7%	0.6%	—	16.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	50.9%	12.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	14.2%	56.8%	2.9%	—	25.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	4.4%	67.4%	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	0.5%	28.5%	1.0%	—	12.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	2.3%	29.8%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	13.1%	42.4%	0.5%	—	16.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	11.2%	20.6%	0.0%	—	50.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	12.7%	18.3%	10.0%	20.7%	19.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.3%	0.5%	0.4%	—	15.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.3%	0.1%	3.0%	0.6%	11.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	9.8%	19.1%	3.0%	—	6.8%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.7%	16.5%	1.7%	28.4%	2.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	14.7%	19.1%	2.7%	—	20.1%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	44.2%	21.2%	3.2%	42.8%	21.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.9%	36.6%	1.3%	—	4.4%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.3%	14.2%	0.1%	16.1%	0.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	92.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	87.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	86.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	84.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 15 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗